St. Louis CITY SC vs San Diego FC prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
St. Louis to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 74%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The Coach and Sceptic both flag goals at both ends, backing the 74% over 2.5 line, while the Dressing Room adds that St. Louis's play-off position gives them extra edge against a San Diego side outside the play-off places who keep drawing away.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome strength and leaky away defence point to goals at both ends
St. Both-teams-score sits at 69% overall.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSt. Louis have far more to play for than a San Diego side adrift
St. St. Louis have 6 days' rest but three games in 14 days; San Diego have 6 days and a lighter two. San Diego's last five away trips read D L D D L.
St. Louis: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome win price looks fair, but San Diego's draw habit is being undersold
The model gives San Diego just 22% despite their 55 goals scored matching strong attacks, and their six-game unbeaten-in-five stretch (five draws) suggests resilience the 22% may understate. St. Goals numbers (74% over 2.5, 90% for 2+) look right given San Diego's 71% over-rate.
San Diego: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
St. Louis CITY SC are favourites at 59%, with San Diego FC on 22% and the draw on 19%. St. Louis CITY SC are 3rd and San Diego FC 12th in MLS. In their last five league games, St. Louis CITY SC won two and San Diego FC none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- St. Louis CITY SC win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- San Diego FC win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 74%
- 4+ goals
- 53%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 69%
- No
- 31%
We expect about 2.4 goals from St. Louis CITY SC and 1.4 from San Diego FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (7%), 3–1 (7%), 2–2 (6%), 2–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 19% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1900 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
St. Louis CITY SC: last 6
LDLDWW · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Real Salt Lake | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | at Columbus Crew US Open Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Minnesota United FC | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 6–2 | W |
| 30 Sep | at New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWD
San Diego FC: last 6
DDDLDD · 13 scored, 16 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Houston Dynamo | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | at New York Red Bulls | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Austin | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Inter Miami | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDDL
Season stats
| St. Louis CITY SC | San Diego FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | Goals scored per game | 1.77 |
| 1.42 | Goals conceded per game | 1.87 |
| 2.27 | Scored per game at home | 2.31 |
| 1.38 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 68% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 16% |
| 2.10 | Yellow cards per game | 1.94 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | St. Louis CITY SC | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis CITY SC | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| … | |||||
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri
- 22,500 seats · grass
- Rest days
- St. Louis CITY SC 6San Diego FC 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: St. Louis CITY SC 3 · San Diego FC 2
- Coaches
- Y. Damet
- St. Louis CITY SC, since Feb 2026
- Mikey Varas
- San Diego FC, since Feb 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
