San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
San Jose Earthquakes to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: a narrow San Jose edge built on home form and league position, with Colorado's head-to-head record the main counterweight. The over 2.5 line splits the panel - the coach sees late goals on both sides, the sceptic notes Colorado's weak away scoring - so the published 60% sits within a reasonable range.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score late and leak late, so a lively second half looks likely.
San Jose concede 15 of their goals in the last 15 minutes and Colorado concede 12 there, while both score most after the break (10 and 11). San Jose average 1.68 goals per game and 65% of their matches see both teams score, against Colorado's 45%. Expect goals, especially late.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSan Jose have more to protect and the stronger home record to lean on.
San Jose's last six read one win and five draws; Colorado have one win in six. Both had 4 days' rest, but San Jose's home form (D W D W L) edges it.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating Colorado's head-to-head edge.
Colorado have won 3 of the last 6 meetings, including 2-0 and 1-1 in 2026, and drew 1-1 with San Jose just weeks ago. But their away form is poor (D L D L L, 3 scored, 10 conceded) and they score only 0.87 per game away.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
San Jose Earthquakes are slight favourites at 44%, with Colorado Rapids on 30% and the draw on 26%. San Jose Earthquakes are 4th and Colorado Rapids 8th in MLS. In their last five league games, San Jose Earthquakes won one and Colorado Rapids one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Jose Earthquakes win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Colorado Rapids win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.7 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 1.4 from Colorado Rapids. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 25% | 30% | Stats preview | #1695 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Jose Earthquakes: last 6
LDDDWD · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at FC Dallas | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Nashville SC | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Real Salt Lake | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Portland Timbers | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWL
Colorado Rapids: last 6
WDDDLD · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Portland Timbers | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Minnesota United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Seattle Sounders | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLL
Season stats
| San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | Goals scored per game | 1.35 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.32 |
| 1.73 | Scored per game at home | 1.81 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game away | 0.87 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 65% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 35% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 26% |
| 2.23 | Yellow cards per game | 2.55 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: San Jose Earthquakes won 2, Colorado Rapids 3, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Colorado Rapids | 1–1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 21 May 2026 | Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | San Jose Earthquakes | US Open Cup |
| 11 May 2025 | Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Mar 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1–2 | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| 12 May 2024 | Colorado Rapids | 2–3 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Apr 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. AdimabuaHernia
- OutD. JohnsonLower-Body
- OutD. JonesAchilles Tendon
Show 2 more
- OutB. KikanovicLower-Body
- DoubtJ. A. Gonzalez MendozaInjury
- OutY. MazizLeg
- OutZ. SteffenShoulder
- DoubtR. CannonLeg
Show 3 more
- DoubtM. DiopKnee
- DoubtA. FadalInjury
- DoubtI. SadiqLeg
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- PayPal Park, San Jose, California
- 18,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- San Jose Earthquakes 4Colorado Rapids 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Jose Earthquakes 2 · Colorado Rapids 2
- Coaches
- B. Arena
- San Jose Earthquakes, since Jan 2025
- Matt Wells
- Colorado Rapids, since Feb 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
