New York City FC vs CF Montréal prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
New York City to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 57%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a home win for New York City FC, supported by their superior attacking statistics and league position. The consensus suggests a high-scoring affair, with the probability of over 2.5 goals sitting near 57%.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNew York City FC's strong home attacking output should prove decisive against CF Montréal's defensive vulnerabilities.
NYCFC averages 1.80 goals scored at home, while CF Montréal concedes 2.00 goals per game. NYCFC scores heavily between 16-30 and 31-45, but concedes most goals in the 76-90 period.
New York City: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureDespite the pressure, NYCFC's superior league standing and rest advantage give them the edge in this fixture.
NYCFC sits 12th with 35 points from 31 games. CF Montréal is 15th with 25 points. NYCFC has had 6 days rest, compared to CF Montréal's 7 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe model appears to overvalue NYCFC's recent form while underestimating CF Montréal's capacity to find the net.
The model predicts NYCFC win at 63% and CF Montréal win at 17%. NYCFC's last 6 games include 3 draws and 3 losses. CF Montréal has scored 62 goals but conceded 36.
Montréal: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
New York City FC are clear favourites at 62%, with CF Montréal on 17% and the draw on 21%. New York City FC are 12th and CF Montréal 15th in MLS. In their last five league games, New York City FC won none and CF Montréal one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- New York City FC win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- CF Montréal win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.0 goals from New York City FC and 0.9 from CF Montréal. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% | 21% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1893 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
New York City FC: last 6
DDLLDL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Orlando City SC | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Los Angeles FC | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Inter Miami | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLDL
CF Montréal: last 6
LDDLLW · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Nashville SC | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Oct | vs Forge Canadian Championship | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Seattle Sounders | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs Atlanta United FC | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DLLLD
Season stats
| New York City FC | CF Montréal | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 1.16 |
| 1.39 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.19 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 1.13 |
| 52% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| 68% | Both teams scored | 52% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 39% |
| 1.65 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | New York City FC | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montréal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Yankee Stadium, New York City
- 54,251 seats · grass
- Rest days
- New York City FC 6CF Montréal 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: New York City FC 2 · CF Montréal 3
- Coaches
- P. Jansen
- New York City FC, since Jan 2025
- Philippe Eullaffroy
- CF Montréal, since Feb 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
