Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Salt Lake to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Real Salt Lake's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak late goals, so a lively finish looks likely
Austin concede 1.84 per game and 21 of their goals against have come in the last 15 minutes, while Real Salt Lake score steadily across all periods. Both teams score in 71% and 68% of their matches respectively, and clean sheets are rare for both.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSalt Lake's stronger position and form edge a tight, open game
Salt Lake have won three of their last six; Austin have lost four. Both have played three games in 14 days, so fatigue is shared.
Real Salt Lake: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks fair given Salt Lake's head-to-head grip
But they have lost four of their last five away, which tempers the 40% away price. The 61% over 2.5 line sits comfortably with both sides' over rates.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Real Salt Lake are slight favourites at 40%, with Austin FC on 36% and the draw on 24%. Austin FC are 14th and Real Salt Lake 10th in MLS. In their last five league games, Austin FC won one and Real Salt Lake three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Austin FC win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Real Salt Lake win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Austin FC and 1.6 from Real Salt Lake. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 24% | 40% | Stats preview | #1681 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Austin FC: last 6
WLLLDD · 8 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Sporting Kansas City | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Los Angeles FC | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs San Diego | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLDDD
Real Salt Lake: last 6
WWDLWL · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs St. Louis City | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Sporting Kansas City | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Philadelphia Union | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs New England Revolution | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| Austin FC | Real Salt Lake | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.55 |
| 1.84 | Goals conceded per game | 1.55 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.94 |
| 1.19 | Scored per game away | 1.13 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 68% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 19% |
| 1.84 | Yellow cards per game | 2.29 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Austin FC | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin FC | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Austin FC won 0, Real Salt Lake 4, 2 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Real Salt Lake | 2–1 | Austin FC | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Real Salt Lake | 3–1 | Austin FC | Major League Soccer |
| 29 May 2025 | Austin FC | 1–1 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Austin FC | 2–2 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Jun 2024 | Real Salt Lake | 5–1 | Austin FC | Major League Soccer |
| 4 Jun 2023 | Austin FC | 1–2 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- DoubtJ. BellAbdominal strain
- DoubtZ. KolmanicThigh
- DoubtE. TorresInjury
- OutD. LunaKnee
- DoubtJ. J. AriasHamstring
- DoubtG. DillonFoot
Show 2 more
- DoubtE. EneliKnee
- DoubtL. EngelHamstring
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- Q2 Stadium, Austin, Texas
- 20,738 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Austin FC 4Real Salt Lake 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Austin FC 3 · Real Salt Lake 3
- Coaches
- D. Arnaud
- Austin FC, since Oct 2024
- P. Mastroeni
- Real Salt Lake, since Aug 2021
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
