St. Louis CITY SC vs Portland Timbers prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
St. Louis to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: St Louis stronger at home and higher in the table, Portland poor on the road, but both defences leak and both score regularly, so a home win with goals either side is the consistent picture. The published 55/22/23 split and the 69% over line sit comfortably within the panel's range.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLate goals likely: St Louis fade late, Portland score most after 75
St Louis concede 12 goals in the last 15 minutes, most of any period, while Portland score 14 in that same window. Both teams score in 66% of the numbers, and St Louis keep clean sheets only 16%.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSt Louis need points for the play-off spots; Portland adrift
St Louis sit 3rd on 51 points, well inside the play-off places and the direct play-off spots (1-7). Portland are 11th on 37, outside the top nine, so their season is running out. Both had 3 games in 14 days and 3 days' rest, so fatigue is even. St Louis's home form reads D W W W D with 16 scored.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair, but the over may be a touch high
The 55% home number matches the gap: St Louis average 2.27 scored at home, Portland 1.33 away with 11 conceded in their last 5 on the road. But St Louis have lost 3 of their last 6, and head-to-head is tight: 2 wins each way is 2-1 with 3 draws and 3.7 goals per game.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
St. Louis CITY SC are favourites at 55%, with Portland Timbers on 23% and the draw on 22%. St. Louis CITY SC are 3rd and Portland Timbers 11th in MLS. In their last five league games, St. Louis CITY SC won two and Portland Timbers one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- St. Louis CITY SC win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Portland Timbers win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 66%
- No
- 34%
We expect about 2.2 goals from St. Louis CITY SC and 1.4 from Portland Timbers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 3–1 (7%), 2–0 (7%), 2–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 22% | 23% | Stats preview | #1658 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
St. Louis CITY SC: last 6
LDLDWW · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Real Salt Lake | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | at Columbus Crew US Open Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Minnesota United FC | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 6–2 | W |
| 30 Sep | at New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWD
Portland Timbers: last 6
WDLDLL · 7 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Charlotte | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Sporting Kansas City | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Atlanta United FC | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLLD
Season stats
| St. Louis CITY SC | Portland Timbers | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | Goals scored per game | 1.74 |
| 1.42 | Goals conceded per game | 1.87 |
| 2.27 | Scored per game at home | 2.12 |
| 1.38 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 68% | Both teams scored | 74% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 6% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 2.10 | Yellow cards per game | 1.61 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | St. Louis CITY SC | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis CITY SC | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: St. Louis CITY SC won 2, Portland Timbers 1, 3 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | Portland Timbers | 2–2 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Jul 2025 | St. Louis CITY SC | 2–1 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Jun 2025 | Portland Timbers | 2–1 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Portland Timbers | 4–4 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Aug 2024 | St. Louis CITY SC | 3–1 | Portland Timbers | Leagues Cup |
| 9 Jun 2024 | St. Louis CITY SC | 0–0 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.T. OstrakSuspended
- OutR. BurkiHead
- OutCelio PompeuKnee
Show 2 more
- OutA. MatanInjury
- DoubtK. HiebertHip
- OutA. BonetigShoulder
- OutB. ByeLeg
- OutZ. McGrawBack
Show 2 more
- OutJ. MosqueraFoot
- DoubtAntonyKnee
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri
- 22,500 seats · grass
- Rest days
- St. Louis CITY SC 3Portland Timbers 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: St. Louis CITY SC 3 · Portland Timbers 3
- Coaches
- Y. Damet
- St. Louis CITY SC, since Feb 2026
- Martí Cifuentes
- Portland Timbers, since Jul 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
