MLS predicted table 2026
Chances for every team to finish in each zone, from 10,000 simulations of the 75 remaining matches. Updated 17 Oct 2026, 08:58 UTC.
In short
- Nashville SC have all but won the Supporters' Shield (>99% of simulations).
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | Exp. pts | Conference top | Direct play-off spot | Wild card | Shield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 29 | 66 | 76 | >99% | 100% | 0% | >99% |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 29 | 52 | 60 | <1% | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 29 | 49 | 57 | 0% | >99% | <1% | 0% |
| 4 | Chicago Fire FC | 29 | 48 | 56 | 0% | >99% | <1% | 0% |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 29 | 46 | 54 | 0% | >99% | <1% | 0% |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 29 | 45 | 52 | 0% | >99% | <1% | 0% |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 38 | 44 | 0% | 31% | 43% | 0% |
| 8 | Red Bull New York | 29 | 36 | 42 | 0% | 8% | 33% | 0% |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 28 | 36 | 44 | 0% | 35% | 38% | 0% |
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 33 | 41 | 0% | 12% | 34% | 0% |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 29 | 33 | 39 | 0% | 3% | 15% | 0% |
| 12 | D.C. United | 28 | 33 | 40 | 0% | 9% | 22% | 0% |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 32 | 38 | 0% | 2% | 13% | 0% |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 29 | 30 | 36 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 0% |
| 15 | CF Montréal | 29 | 24 | 28 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Zones: Conference top = 1st; Direct play-off spot = 1–7; Wild card = 8–9 (within the conference). Bold = more likely than not. 0% and 100% appear only when the outcome is already mathematically settled.
Western Conference
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | Exp. pts | Conference top | Direct play-off spot | Wild card | Shield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 52 | 62 | 67% | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | St. Louis CITY SC | 29 | 51 | 59 | 20% | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 29 | 50 | 58 | 12% | >99% | <1% | 0% |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | 47 | 54 | 1% | >99% | <1% | 0% |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo FC | 29 | 46 | 53 | <1% | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| 6 | LAFC | 30 | 45 | 52 | <1% | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders FC | 29 | 41 | 48 | <1% | 74% | 24% | 0% |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 30 | 39 | 44 | 0% | 12% | 59% | 0% |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 38 | 44 | <1% | 14% | 55% | 0% |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 29 | 33 | 40 | 0% | 1% | 18% | 0% |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 33 | 40 | 0% | 1% | 18% | 0% |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 29 | 33 | 39 | 0% | 1% | 14% | 0% |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 31 | 37 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 0% |
| 14 | Austin FC | 29 | 31 | 37 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 0% |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 22 | 27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Zones: Conference top = 1st; Direct play-off spot = 1–7; Wild card = 8–9 (within the conference). Bold = more likely than not. 0% and 100% appear only when the outcome is already mathematically settled.
How this table is made
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season's results, adjusted for home advantage and pulled towards the league average while the sample is small. We then play every remaining match 10,000 times with goals drawn from those ratings, and count how often each team ends up in each zone. Current points come from the official table, so any points deductions are included. Ties are broken on goal difference, then goals scored.
It uses no bookmaker prices, news or AI: it is a pure model of the results so far. Early in the season it reacts strongly to a few big wins, so treat the extremes with care. The table updates after every round. Methodology