Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Minnesota to win: 70%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 72% · bookies 72%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The combined analysis suggests a high-scoring match where Minnesota United's attacking periods are likely to be decisive. Despite recent form concerns, the statistical edge and home advantage give them the narrow edge, supported by a strong likelihood of multiple goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think Sporting Kansas City's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Sporting Kansas City favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMinnesota United's mid-game attacking surge could overwhelm Sporting Kansas City's defensive frailties.
Minnesota United scored 9 goals in the 46-60 period, while Sporting Kansas City conceded 15 goals in the 31-45 period. MNU also scored 13 goals in the 61-75 period.
Sporting Kansas: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are battling to climb out of the lower reaches of the table.
Minnesota United sits 13th with 35 points, while Sporting Kansas City is 15th with 22 points. Both teams have 4 days of rest before this fixture.
Sporting Kansas: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market overvalues Minnesota United given their recent form struggles.
Minnesota United has suffered 2 losses in their last 6 games, and Sporting Kansas City has suffered 4 losses in their last 6. Both teams have significant injury absences.
Sporting Kansas: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Minnesota United FC are clear favourites at 70%, with Sporting Kansas City on 13% and the draw on 17%. Minnesota United FC are 13th and Sporting Kansas City 15th in MLS. In their last five league games, Minnesota United FC won one and Sporting Kansas City none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Minnesota United FC win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Sporting Kansas City win or draw
- 30%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 72%
- 4+ goals
- 52%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Minnesota United FC and 1.1 from Sporting Kansas City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 3–0 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% | 17% | 14% | Stats preview | #1693 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Minnesota United FC: last 6
DWDDLL · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Houston Dynamo | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs St. Louis City | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDLLD
Sporting Kansas City: last 6
LLLDLW · 8 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Austin | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Nashville SC | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Portland Timbers | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Seattle Sounders | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWLL
Season stats
| Minnesota United FC | Sporting Kansas City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | Goals scored per game | 1.19 |
| 1.77 | Goals conceded per game | 2.48 |
| 1.27 | Scored per game at home | 1.44 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 0.93 |
| 65% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 65% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 3% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 32% |
| 1.90 | Yellow cards per game | 1.84 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Minnesota United FC | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Minnesota United FC won 4, Sporting Kansas City 1, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | Sporting Kansas City | 2–1 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Feb 2026 | Sporting Kansas City | 0–3 | Minnesota United FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Minnesota United FC | 3–0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Sporting Kansas City | 3–3 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Sporting Kansas City | 0–2 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Jun 2024 | Minnesota United FC | 3–1 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. SmirKnee
- DoubtP. StroudMuscle
- DoubtW. TrappConcussion
- OutO. BlorianChest
- DoubtDiego BorgesGroin
- DoubtL. JohnsenHamstring
Show 3 more
- DoubtM. MosqueraHamstring
- DoubtS. ReidHamstring
- DoubtJ. ReynoldsMuscle
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
- 19,954 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Minnesota United FC 4Sporting Kansas City 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Minnesota United FC 3 · Sporting Kansas City 2
- Coaches
- C. Knowles
- Minnesota United FC, since Feb 2024
- R. Wicky
- Sporting Kansas City, since Feb 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
