Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Nashville to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean Nashville, close to the published 51/24/26, with the coach and sceptic slightly less convinced than the market on goals. The 62% over 2.5 line looks broadly right given Philadelphia's away scoring and Nashville's home form, though the 0-0 head-to-head meeting this season tempers it a little.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Nashville SC are underrated; The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNashville concede just 0.74 per game with 48% clean sheets, and at home they score 3.00 per game. Philadelphia score 2.27 per game away and most of their goals come after the hour, 17 in 61-75 and 11 in 76-90. Nashville concede only 5 times in 76-90, so the visitors' late push may not land.
Nashville: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop spot against a play-off chaser shapes the tempo
Nashville lead the table on 70 points from 31 games, already clear at the Conference top, so pressure is light. Philadelphia sit 6th on 46 points, inside the direct play-off spots but needing points to hold off the wild card places. Both had 4 days' rest with 2 games in 14 days.
Philadelphia Union: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 62% over line looks fair, maybe a touch high
The published 62% for over 2.5 sits between Nashville's 58% and Philadelphia's 71% over rate, and both teams score at 62%. But the head-to-head averages 2.5 goals per game and the last meeting finished 0-0, while Nashville's 45% both-teams-score rate argues the visitors may not score at all.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Nashville SC are favourites at 51%, with Philadelphia Union on 25% and the draw on 24%. Nashville SC are 1st and Philadelphia Union 6th in MLS. In their last five league games, Nashville SC won four and Philadelphia Union three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Nashville SC win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Philadelphia Union win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Nashville SC and 1.3 from Philadelphia Union. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 24% | 26% | Stats preview | #1694 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nashville SC: last 6
WDWWWW · 16 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at CF Montreal | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Austin | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Toronto FC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Chicago Fire | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Philadelphia Union: last 6
LDWWWW · 16 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs New England Revolution | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Charlotte | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sporting Kansas City | 4–3 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWD
Season stats
| Nashville SC | Philadelphia Union | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 0.74 | Goals conceded per game | 1.61 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.31 | Scored per game away | 2.27 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 48% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 16% |
| 1.71 | Yellow cards per game | 2.32 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Nashville SC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Nashville SC won 3, Philadelphia Union 2, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Philadelphia Union | 0–0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Nashville SC | 3–1 | Philadelphia Union | US Open Cup |
| 6 Jul 2025 | Nashville SC | 1–0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Philadelphia Union | 1–3 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Philadelphia Union | 3–0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Nashville SC | 1–2 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutO. PresthusLower-Body
- DoubtF. CamaraLower-Body
- OutJ. BuenoHamstring
- OutC. SullivanAnkle
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee
- 30,109 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Nashville SC 4Philadelphia Union 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nashville SC 2 · Philadelphia Union 2
- Coaches
- B. Callaghan
- Nashville SC, since Jul 2024
- Ryan Richter
- Philadelphia Union, since Jul 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
