Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dallas to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 75%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three analysts point towards FC Dallas as the likely winner, supported by their strong league position and attacking metrics. The high probability of goals is consistent across all readings, reflecting the defensive weaknesses of the home side.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFC Dallas's high attacking output contrasts with Sporting Kansas City's defensive fragility.
FC Dallas scores 1.87 goals per game and is particularly strong late, netting 18 goals in the 76-90 period.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe significant gap in league standing suggests a clear advantage for the visiting side.
FC Dallas sits 2nd in the table with 54 points from 31 games. Sporting Kansas City is 15th with 22 points. Both teams have 6 days of rest before this fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high probability of goals seems justified given Sporting Kansas City's defensive record.
Sporting Kansas City has conceded 2.48 goals per game, while FC Dallas has an expected goals metric of 2.4. Both teams have a 71% chance of scoring.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Dallas are favourites at 58%, with Sporting Kansas City on 23% and the draw on 19%. Sporting Kansas City are 15th and FC Dallas 2nd in MLS. In their last five league games, Sporting Kansas City won none and FC Dallas three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sporting Kansas City win or draw
- 42%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- FC Dallas win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 55%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 71%
- No
- 29%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Sporting Kansas City and 2.4 from FC Dallas. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (7%), 1–3 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 0–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 19% | 58% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2026 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sporting Kansas City: last 6
LLLDLW · 8 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Austin | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Nashville SC | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Portland Timbers | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Seattle Sounders | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLDLW
FC Dallas: last 6
WDWLWD · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Charlotte | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Austin | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLWDL
Season stats
| Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.19 | Goals scored per game | 1.87 |
| 2.48 | Goals conceded per game | 1.52 |
| 1.44 | Scored per game at home | 1.93 |
| 0.93 | Scored per game away | 1.81 |
| 81% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| 65% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 3% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 1.84 | Yellow cards per game | 2.19 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| … | |||||
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kansas
- 21,650 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Sporting Kansas City 6FC Dallas 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sporting Kansas City 2 · FC Dallas 2
- Coaches
- R. Wicky
- Sporting Kansas City, since Feb 2026
- Eric Quill
- FC Dallas, since Feb 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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