Nashville SC vs Red Bull New York prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Nashville to win: 76%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 61%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
In short
Nashville SC are clear favourites at 76%, with Red Bull New York on 9% and the draw on 15%. Nashville SC are 1st and Red Bull New York 9th in MLS. In their last five league games, Nashville SC won four and Red Bull New York two.
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Win or draw (double chance)
- Nashville SC win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Red Bull New York win or draw
- 24%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Nashville SC and 0.7 from Red Bull New York. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76% | 15% | 8% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2057 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nashville SC: last 6
WDWWWW · 16 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at CF Montreal | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Austin | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Toronto FC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Chicago Fire | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Red Bull New York: last 6
WLLWLW · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Inter Miami | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Toronto FC | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs San Diego | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs St. Louis City | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | at New York City FC | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLD
Season stats
| Nashville SC | Red Bull New York | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | Goals scored per game | 1.32 |
| 0.74 | Goals conceded per game | 1.81 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.31 | Scored per game away | 1.13 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 48% | Clean sheets | 16% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 1.71 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Nashville SC | Red Bull New York |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| … | |||||
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | Red Bull New York | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
Match context
- Stadium
- GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee
- 30,109 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Nashville SC 8Red Bull New York 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nashville SC 1 · Red Bull New York 1
- Coaches
- B. Callaghan
- Nashville SC, since Jul 2024
- Michael Bradley
- Red Bull New York, since Oct 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
