San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
San Jose Earthquakes to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 61%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The consensus points towards a San Jose victory, supported by their home form and direct play-off status. All three analysts agree on the likelihood of a high-scoring affair, with the over 2.5 goals line being the most probable outcome.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSan Jose's home scoring power and late-game threat should give them the edge over a struggling Real Salt Lake.
San Jose averages 1.73 goals scored per game at home and is strong in the 76-90 period. Real Salt Lake averages only 1.13 goals per game away and concedes heavily in the final 15 minutes.
San Jose Earthquakes: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSan Jose's direct play-off status gives them a significant advantage over Real Salt Lake's wild card position.
San Jose sits in the Direct play-off spot with 48 points. Real Salt Lake is in the Wild card zone with 39 points and has struggled in their last five away fixtures.
Real Salt Lake: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published probabilities seem fair, but Real Salt Lake's poor away form suggests their chances are slightly overstated.
Real Salt Lake's away form is W L L L L, contrasting with their season average. San Jose's home form is inconsistent, with a recent loss to FC Dallas.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
San Jose Earthquakes are favourites at 51%, with Real Salt Lake on 26% and the draw on 23%. San Jose Earthquakes are 4th and Real Salt Lake 10th in MLS. In their last five league games, San Jose Earthquakes won one and Real Salt Lake three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Jose Earthquakes win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Real Salt Lake win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.9 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 1.3 from Real Salt Lake. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 23% | 26% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1920 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Jose Earthquakes: last 6
LDDDWD · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at FC Dallas | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Nashville SC | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Real Salt Lake | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Portland Timbers | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWL
Real Salt Lake: last 6
WWDLWL · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs St. Louis City | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Sporting Kansas City | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Philadelphia Union | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs New England Revolution | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | Goals scored per game | 1.55 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.55 |
| 1.73 | Scored per game at home | 1.94 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game away | 1.13 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| 65% | Both teams scored | 68% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 19% |
| 2.23 | Yellow cards per game | 2.29 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- PayPal Park, San Jose, California
- 18,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- San Jose Earthquakes 6Real Salt Lake 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Jose Earthquakes 2 · Real Salt Lake 2
- Coaches
- B. Arena
- San Jose Earthquakes, since Jan 2025
- P. Mastroeni
- Real Salt Lake, since Aug 2021
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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