LAFC vs Minnesota United FC prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
LAFC to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
In short
LAFC are favourites at 59%, with Minnesota United FC on 19% and the draw on 22%. LAFC are 6th and Minnesota United FC 13th in MLS. In their last five league games, LAFC won one and Minnesota United FC one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- LAFC win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Minnesota United FC win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 2.0 goals from LAFC and 1.0 from Minnesota United FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 22% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2025 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
LAFC: last 6
DDWDLD · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | at New York City FC | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Austin | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at FC Dallas | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at San Jose Earthquakes | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWD
Minnesota United FC: last 6
DWDDLL · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Houston Dynamo | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs St. Louis City | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLLL
Season stats
| LAFC | Minnesota United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | Goals scored per game | 1.52 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 1.77 |
| 1.94 | Scored per game at home | 1.27 |
| 1.19 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 41% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 19% |
| 1.69 | Yellow cards per game | 1.90 |
League matches only, 32 and 31 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | LAFC | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | LAFC | 32 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- BMO Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- 22,921 seats · grass
- Rest days
- LAFC 7Minnesota United FC 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: LAFC 1 · Minnesota United FC 1
- Coaches
- Xavi Tamarit
- LAFC, since Oct 2026
- C. Knowles
- Minnesota United FC, since Feb 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
