FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cincinnati to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 84%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a high-scoring affair, with the Over 2.5 goals probability being the most consistent factor. While the home side has a strong attacking record at home, the overall statistical profile of both teams suggests a competitive match where goals are highly likely.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersThe attacking nature of both sides suggests a high-scoring encounter with goals likely coming late.
FC Cincinnati scores 2.53 per game at home, while Philadelphia Union scores 2.27 away. Cincinnati's strongest period is 76-90 (22 goals), and Philly's is 61-75 (17 goals).
Cincinnati: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThis mid-table clash is a crucial fixture for both sides vying for a playoff spot.
Both teams have 6 days rest. FC Cincinnati is 7th with 42 points, while Philadelphia Union is 6th with 46 points. Both are firmly in the Playoffs zone (1-9).
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high probability of goals seems justified given the attacking statistics of both teams.
Both teams score 81% of the time, and over 2.5 goals is published at 84%. Philly has conceded 1.61 goals per game, which is lower than Cincinnati's 2.29.
Philadelphia Union: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Cincinnati are slight favourites at 42%, with Philadelphia Union on 39% and the draw on 19%. FC Cincinnati are 7th and Philadelphia Union 6th in MLS. In their last five league games, FC Cincinnati won three and Philadelphia Union three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Cincinnati win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Philadelphia Union win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 94%
- 3+ goals
- 84%
- 4+ goals
- 67%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 81%
- No
- 19%
We expect about 2.3 goals from FC Cincinnati and 2.3 from Philadelphia Union. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–2 (7%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (6%), 1–2 (6%), 3–2 (5%), 1–1 (5%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 19% | 39% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2027 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Cincinnati: last 6
WWLLWL · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at DC United | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Columbus Crew | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs New England Revolution | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Atlanta United FC | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at CF Montreal | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLDD
Philadelphia Union: last 6
LDWWWW · 16 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs New England Revolution | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Charlotte | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sporting Kansas City | 4–3 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWD
Season stats
| FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 2.29 | Goals conceded per game | 1.61 |
| 2.53 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game away | 2.27 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 74% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 16% |
| 2.16 | Yellow cards per game | 2.32 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
- 26,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- FC Cincinnati 6Philadelphia Union 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Cincinnati 3 · Philadelphia Union 2
- Coaches
- Pat Noonan
- FC Cincinnati, since Feb 2026
- Ryan Richter
- Philadelphia Union, since Jul 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
