Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Atlanta to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
In short
Atlanta United FC are slight favourites at 43%, with Toronto FC on 33% and the draw on 24%. Atlanta United FC are 14th and Toronto FC 11th in MLS. In their last five league games, Atlanta United FC won one and Toronto FC two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atlanta United FC win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Toronto FC win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Atlanta United FC and 1.4 from Toronto FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 24% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1749 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atlanta United FC: last 6
LLWLDW · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Chicago Fire | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Inter Miami | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | at CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs New York City FC | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Portland Timbers | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLLDL
Toronto FC: last 6
LWDWLL · 10 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Columbus Crew | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at New York Red Bulls | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Orlando City SC | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Nashville SC | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLL
Season stats
| Atlanta United FC | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Goals scored per game | 1.55 |
| 1.74 | Goals conceded per game | 1.90 |
| 1.44 | Scored per game at home | 2.12 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game away | 0.93 |
| 65% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| 65% | Both teams scored | 77% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 16% |
| 2.23 | Yellow cards per game | 1.81 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Atlanta United FC | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- 73,019 seats · artificial turf
- Rest days
- Atlanta United FC 7Toronto FC 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atlanta United FC 1 · Toronto FC 1
- Coaches
- G. Martino
- Atlanta United FC, since Feb 2026
- R. Fraser
- Toronto FC, since Jan 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
