Columbus Crew vs D.C. United prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Columbus Crew to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
A home win with goals looks the consensus reading.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersColumbus' home scoring and D.C.'s leaky away defence point to goals and a home win.
Columbus score 1.62 per game at home and have won four of their last five at home, with 11 scored. D.C. concede 1.77 per game and shipped 16 in their last five away. Both sides score late: Columbus have 13 conceded in the last 15 minutes, D.C. 11 scored there.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureColumbus' push for the Wild card places gives them the sharper edge at home.
Columbus sit 10th on 38 points, one place outside the Wild card spots, and have won four of their last six. D.C. are 13th on 33 with one win in six. Both had six days' rest after three games in 14 days, so legs should be fresh.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look about right, though the home lean may be slightly strong.
Columbus concede 1.58 per game and kept clean sheets just 19% of the time, so D.C. should score. D.C. fail to score in 32% of matches, which tempers that. The 58% over 2.5 line sits between their 71% and 61% over rates, so it looks fair.
Columbus Crew: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Columbus Crew are favourites at 55%, with D.C. United on 23% and the draw on 22%. Columbus Crew are 10th and D.C. United 13th in MLS. In their last five league games, Columbus Crew won four and D.C. United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Columbus Crew win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- D.C. United win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Columbus Crew and 1.1 from D.C. United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 22% | 23% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1894 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Columbus Crew: last 6
WDWWLW · 13 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Toronto FC | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs St. Louis City US Open Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Charlotte | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Orlando City SC | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Inter Miami | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWWW
D.C. United: last 6
LLLWLD · 7 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Orlando City SC | 1–4 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs New York Red Bulls | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Inter Miami | 0–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Vancouver Whitecaps | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLDL
Season stats
| Columbus Crew | D.C. United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.61 | Goals scored per game | 1.23 |
| 1.58 | Goals conceded per game | 1.77 |
| 1.62 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 32% |
| 1.74 | Yellow cards per game | 1.97 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Columbus Crew | D.C. United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | D.C. United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio
- 20,931 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Columbus Crew 6D.C. United 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Columbus Crew 3 · D.C. United 3
- Coaches
- L. Courtois
- Columbus Crew, since Feb 2026
- R. Weiler
- D.C. United, since Jan 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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