New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
New York City to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The combined analysis suggests a tight contest, with NYCFC holding a slight edge due to their home scoring rate. The high number of draws in recent history and the poor form of NYCFC at home temper the expectation of a decisive victory. The overall outlook points towards a competitive match with a reasonable chance of goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Coach thinks New York City FC are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNew York City FC's home attacking power should be the primary factor in this encounter.
NYCFC has scored 1.80 goals per game at home. They are most effective between the 16th and 30th minute, netting 12 goals. Conversely, ATL concedes most of their goals in the final 15 minutes, with 14 goals conceded in the 76-90 period.
New York City: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe pressure is high for both sides as they battle near the bottom of the table.
NYCFC sits 12th with 35 points, while ATL is 14th with 30 points. Both teams have had 2 games in 14 days, meaning they both have 4 days of rest before this fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be overestimating New York City FC given their recent form.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, there have been 4 draws. NYCFC's last 5 home games resulted in D L L D L. ATL's away form has been W W D D W.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
New York City FC are favourites at 55%, with Atlanta United FC on 22% and the draw on 23%. New York City FC are 12th and Atlanta United FC 14th in MLS. In their last five league games, New York City FC won none and Atlanta United FC one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- New York City FC win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Atlanta United FC win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 2.0 goals from New York City FC and 1.2 from Atlanta United FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 23% | 22% | Stats preview | #1655 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
New York City FC: last 6
DDLLDL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Orlando City SC | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Los Angeles FC | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Inter Miami | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLDL
Atlanta United FC: last 6
LLWLDW · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Chicago Fire | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Inter Miami | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | at CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs New York City FC | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Portland Timbers | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDDW
Season stats
| New York City FC | Atlanta United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 1.26 |
| 1.39 | Goals conceded per game | 1.74 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.44 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 1.07 |
| 52% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| 68% | Both teams scored | 65% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 19% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 1.65 | Yellow cards per game | 2.23 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | New York City FC | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: New York City FC won 1, Atlanta United FC 1, 4 draws; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Jun 2025 | New York City FC | 4–0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Atlanta United FC | 4–3 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 6 Apr 2024 | New York City FC | 1–1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 21 Jun 2023 | Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. BaieraKnee
- OutA. FarnosLeg
- OutM. MoralezKnee
Show 2 more
- OutK. ParksLeg
- OutK. TrewinAnkle
- OutD. ChicaKnee
- OutW. ReillyAnkle
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- Yankee Stadium, New York City
- 54,251 seats · grass
- Rest days
- New York City FC 4Atlanta United FC 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: New York City FC 2 · Atlanta United FC 2
- Coaches
- P. Jansen
- New York City FC, since Jan 2025
- G. Martino
- Atlanta United FC, since Feb 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
