Toronto FC vs D.C. United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Toronto to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean Toronto, with probabilities clustering near the published 51-24-25 and nobody straying more than a few points.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Toronto FC are underrated; The Sceptic thinks D.C. United are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Toronto's late scoring surge the sharpest edge.
Toronto score 2.12 per game at home and 18 of their 48 league goals came in the last 15 minutes; D.C. concede 12 times in that period. Both teams score in 77% of Toronto's games and 62% overall, while Toronto keep clean sheets just 13% of the time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureToronto sit 11th on 36 points, D.C. 13th on 33, with the play-off places at 1-9 out of reach for both on current form. Toronto are unbeaten in five at home (D W W D D, 12 scored), while D.C. have lost four of five away, conceding 16.
Toronto: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks fair, but D.C.'s head-to-head record argues they are slightly underpriced.
The last six meetings split 2-2-2 with 3.3 goals per game, and D.C. won the 2026 meeting 2-1. Toronto's last six show three defeats, and their 59 goals conceded is worse than D.C.'s 55, so 51% home may be a touch high; the 63% over line looks about right.
D.C.: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Toronto FC are favourites at 51%, with D.C. United on 25% and the draw on 24%. Toronto FC are 11th and D.C. United 13th in MLS. In their last five league games, Toronto FC won two and D.C. United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Toronto FC win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- D.C. United win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Toronto FC and 1.3 from D.C. United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 24% | 25% | Stats preview | #1669 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Toronto FC: last 6
LWDWLL · 10 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Columbus Crew | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at New York Red Bulls | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Orlando City SC | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Nashville SC | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWDD
D.C. United: last 6
LLLWLD · 7 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Orlando City SC | 1–4 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs New York Red Bulls | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Inter Miami | 0–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Vancouver Whitecaps | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLDL
Season stats
| Toronto FC | D.C. United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.23 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded per game | 1.77 |
| 2.12 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 0.93 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 68% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| 77% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 32% |
| 1.81 | Yellow cards per game | 1.97 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Toronto FC | D.C. United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | D.C. United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Toronto FC won 2, D.C. United 2, 2 draws; 3.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | D.C. United | 2–1 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 10 May 2025 | Toronto FC | 2–0 | D.C. United | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Feb 2025 | D.C. United | 2–2 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Toronto FC | 1–3 | D.C. United | Major League Soccer |
| 1 Jun 2024 | D.C. United | 2–2 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 27 May 2023 | Toronto FC | 2–1 | D.C. United | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutK. FranklinShoulder
- OutN. GomisCalf
- OutN. PalacioLower-Body
Show 1 more
- OutW. ZimmermanAnkle
- OutL. MunteanuLeg
- OutG. SegalAnkle
- DoubtJ. HopkinsAnkle
Show 1 more
- DoubtH. KijimaLeg
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario
- 36,045 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Toronto FC 4D.C. United 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Toronto FC 2 · D.C. United 3
- Coaches
- R. Fraser
- Toronto FC, since Jan 2025
- R. Weiler
- D.C. United, since Jan 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
