Chicago Fire FC vs Orlando City SC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Chicago Fire to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 75% · bookies 75%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Chicago's stronger table position and head-to-head edge support the favourite, while Orlando's away frailty is partly offset by their attacking output.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak goals late, so a lively, open game looks likely.
Orlando concede 2.32 per game and 16 of their goals conceded come in the last 15 minutes; Chicago also concede most after the break (12 in 76-90). Both teams score in 70-71% of matches and over 2.5 lands in 74-77% of games, so goals on both ends fit the pattern.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureChicago have more to protect but home form is shaky.
Chicago sit 4th on 51 points, inside the direct play-off spots, while Orlando are 8th on 42 in the wild card places. Chicago's last five at home read L W W L D with 8 scored and 8 conceded, and both teams had just 4 days' rest, so pressure and fatigue could shape a tight finish.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks fair, but Orlando's attack keeps this closer than it seems.
Chicago have won 3 of the last 6 head-to-heads at 3.2 goals per game, yet Orlando score 1.94 per game and hit 4+ in recent wins over DC United and Columbus. With 60 goals scored but 72 conceded, their games swing wildly, so the 61% home price looks about right rather than generous.
Chicago Fire: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Chicago Fire FC are clear favourites at 61%, with Orlando City SC on 21% and the draw on 18%. Chicago Fire FC are 4th and Orlando City SC 8th in MLS. In their last five league games, Chicago Fire FC won three and Orlando City SC two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Chicago Fire FC win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Orlando City SC win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 55%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 70%
- No
- 30%
We expect about 2.5 goals from Chicago Fire FC and 1.4 from Orlando City SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 3–1 (7%), 1–1 (7%), 2–2 (6%), 2–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 19% | 21% | Stats preview | #1728 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Chicago Fire FC: last 6
WLLWWW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Atlanta United FC | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at New England Revolution | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs New York City FC | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Charlotte | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWLD
Orlando City SC: last 6
DWDWLL · 16 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs New York City FC | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs DC United | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Toronto FC | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Philadelphia Union | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at New England Revolution | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLW
Season stats
| Chicago Fire FC | Orlando City SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77 | Goals scored per game | 1.94 |
| 1.48 | Goals conceded per game | 2.32 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.69 | Scored per game away | 1.87 |
| 74% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 16% |
| 2.29 | Yellow cards per game | 2.26 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Chicago Fire FC | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire FC | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chicago Fire FC won 3, Orlando City SC 1, 2 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | Orlando City SC | 1–2 | Chicago Fire FC | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Oct 2025 | Chicago Fire FC | 3–1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2025 | Orlando City SC | 1–3 | Chicago Fire FC | Major League Soccer |
| 4 May 2025 | Chicago Fire FC | 0–0 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Orlando City SC | 4–2 | Chicago Fire FC | Major League Soccer |
| 30 May 2024 | Chicago Fire FC | 1–1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.D. D'AvillaSuspended
- Susp.M. MbokaziSuspended
- OutR. LodLower-Body
Show 2 more
- OutS. RogersLower-Body
- DoubtA. FrancoKnee
- Susp.E. AtuestaSuspended
- OutG. DorseyBack
- OutR. JanssonFoot
Show 1 more
- OutT. SpicerFoot
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- 62,493 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Chicago Fire FC 4Orlando City SC 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Chicago Fire FC 2 · Orlando City SC 2
- Coaches
- G. Berhalter
- Chicago Fire FC, since Oct 2024
- M. Perelman
- Orlando City SC, since Oct 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
