New England Revolution vs Red Bull New York prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
New England Revolution to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: a New England win built on the 16-point gap and home record, with New York's away scoring too weak to fully trust the 68% over-2.5 line. Probabilities sit close to the published 50/22/28, with the over trimmed slightly given the away side's 1.13 goals per game and 55% over-2.5 rate.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think New England Revolution's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome side's late-game strength meets visitors who fade after the break.
New England score 15 of their 51 goals in the final 15 minutes; New York concede 23 in the last 30. The visitors average just 1.13 goals away per game, so the hosts' edge should show late rather than early.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePlay-off-bound hosts should edge a side fighting for a wild card.
New England sit 3rd with 55 points, safely inside the Direct play-off spots; New York are 9th with 39, just holding a Wild card place. Both come in on 4 days' rest, but the hosts have won three of their last six.
New England Revolution: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNew England's price looks fair, but the over 2.5 may be a touch rich.
New York have won 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads at 3.7 goals per game, yet only 55% of their matches pass 2.5, so the 68% over looks slightly high.
New England Revolution: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
New England Revolution are favourites at 50%, with Red Bull New York on 28% and the draw on 22%. New England Revolution are 3rd and Red Bull New York 9th in MLS. In their last five league games, New England Revolution won three and Red Bull New York two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- New England Revolution win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Red Bull New York win or draw
- 50%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 47%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 2.0 goals from New England Revolution and 1.5 from Red Bull New York. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–2 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% | 22% | 28% | Stats preview | #1696 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
New England Revolution: last 6
WWWLLW · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Chicago Fire | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Real Salt Lake | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWDL
Red Bull New York: last 6
WLLWLW · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Inter Miami | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Toronto FC | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs San Diego | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs St. Louis City | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | at New York City FC | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLD
Season stats
| New England Revolution | Red Bull New York | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | Goals scored per game | 1.32 |
| 1.35 | Goals conceded per game | 1.81 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.13 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 61% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 19% | Clean sheets | 16% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 1.74 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 31 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | New England Revolution | Red Bull New York |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | Red Bull New York | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: New England Revolution won 2, Red Bull New York 4, 0 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Red Bull New York | 1–0 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Jul 2025 | Red Bull New York | 5–3 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Mar 2025 | New England Revolution | 2–1 | Red Bull New York | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Jun 2024 | New England Revolution | 1–0 | Red Bull New York | Major League Soccer |
| 11 May 2024 | Red Bull New York | 4–2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Jan 2024 | New England Revolution | 0–3 | Red Bull New York | Friendlies Clubs |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. HarrisonLower-Body
- OutA. YusufMuscle
- DoubtL. CampanaHamstring
Show 1 more
- DoubtW. SandsLeg
- Susp.J. BazanSuspended
- OutJ. CheKnee
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Match context
- Stadium
- Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- 68,756 seats · artificial turf
- Rest days
- New England Revolution 4Red Bull New York 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: New England Revolution 2 · Red Bull New York 2
- Coaches
- Marko Mitrović
- New England Revolution
- Michael Bradley
- Red Bull New York, since Oct 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
