‹ MLS · Matchday 32
FC Dallas 2ndWDWLW
ET
Preview
Columbus Crew 10thWWWLW

FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works

KickoffHour forecast · data model

Who wins?

Dallas to win: 49%, about 1 in 2

Dallas49%Bookies 49
Draw23%Bookies 23
Columbus Crew28%Bookies 28

Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%

Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.

The Verdict

The three readings suggest a competitive match where FC Dallas' home advantage is key, but the high goal-scoring rates and recent H2H history point towards an open game. The market consensus aligns with the data, favouring a tight contest with goals.

Version 1 · updated Ledger record ↗

Key factors

What our AI analysts say

All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.

The Coach

styles in the numbers

FC Dallas' late-game scoring threat meets Columbus Crew's consistent second-half attacking rhythm.

FC Dallas has scored 18 goals in the 76-90 period this season. Columbus Crew is strong in the second half, netting 11 goals between the 46-60 and 61-75 periods. FCD's home scoring rate is 1.93 goals per game.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Dressing Room

the table and pressure

Both sides are firmly in the Playoffs zone, making this a high-stakes encounter for both clubs.

FC Dallas is 2nd in the table with 54 points. Columbus Crew is 10th with 38 points. Both teams have 4 days of rest, but Columbus Crew has played 3 games in 14 days.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

The market reflects FC Dallas' home strength, but the recent head-to-head history suggests a tendency towards draws.

FC Dallas is 2nd in the table, while Columbus Crew is 10th. In the last 6 encounters, there have been 4 draws. Both teams have high over 2.5 goal probabilities, with FCD at 68% and CC at 71%.

✓ In line with bookmakers

Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.

In short

FC Dallas are favourites at 49%, with Columbus Crew on 28% and the draw on 23%. FC Dallas are 2nd and Columbus Crew 10th in MLS. In their last five league games, FC Dallas won three and Columbus Crew four.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

FC Dallas win or draw
72%
Either team wins (no draw)
77%
Columbus Crew win or draw
51%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
64%
4+ goals
42%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes
64%
No
36%

We expect about 1.9 goals from FC Dallas and 1.4 from Columbus Crew. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history
#PublishedHomeDrawAwayReasonRecord
1 49%23%28%Stats preview#1730

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

FC Dallas: last 6

WDWLWD · 9 scored, 5 conceded

25 Octvs San Jose Earthquakes3–0W
18 Octat Houston Dynamo2–2D
15 Octvs Seattle Sounders1–0W
10 Octat Charlotte2–3L
27 Sepvs Los Angeles FC1–0W
20 Sepvs Austin0–0D

Last 5 at home: WWWDW

Columbus Crew: last 6

WDWWLW · 13 scored, 7 conceded

24 Octvs Toronto FC4–2W
22 Octvs St. Louis City US Open Cup0–0D
18 Octat FC Cincinnati2–0W
14 Octvs Charlotte3–1W
10 Octat Orlando City SC2–3L
27 Sepvs Inter Miami2–1W

Last 5 away: WLWLL

Season stats

FC DallasColumbus Crew
1.87Goals scored per game1.61
1.52Goals conceded per game1.58
1.93Scored per game at home1.62
1.81Scored per game away1.60
68%Matches over 2.5 goals71%
61%Both teams scored71%
26%Clean sheets19%
23%Failed to score13%
2.19Yellow cards per game1.74

League matches only, 31 games each.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
MinutesFC DallasColumbus Crew
0–15 min 86
16–30 min 109
31–45 min 128
46–60 min 511
61–75 min 56
76–90 min 187

MLS table

#TeamPldGoal diff.PointsLeague form
1Vancouver Whitecaps31+3155LWDDL
2FC Dallas31+1154WDWLW
3St. Louis City31+1251LLDWW
4San Jose Earthquakes31+748LDDDW
5Houston Dynamo31+248DDDDL
…
7FC Cincinnati31-742WWLLW
8Orlando City SC31-1242DWDWL
9New York Red Bulls31-1539WLLWL
10Columbus Crew31+138WWWLW
11Toronto FC31-1136LWDWL
12New York City FC31+235DDLLD
13DC United31-1733LLLWL

Full MLS table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: FC Dallas won 0, Columbus Crew 2, 4 draws; 2.0 goals per game.

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Sep 2023FC Dallas1–1Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
4 Oct 2020FC Dallas2–2Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
16 Mar 2019Columbus Crew1–0FC DallasMajor League Soccer
16 Sep 2018FC Dallas0–0Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
26 Aug 2017Columbus Crew2–1FC DallasMajor League Soccer
3 Apr 2016FC Dallas1–1Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer

Team news: injuries and suspensions

FC Dallas3
  • Susp.S. SarverSuspended
  • DoubtL. FarringtonLower-Body
  • DoubtGeovane JesusKnee
Columbus Crew4
  • Susp.S. BangouraSuspended
  • OutW. Abou AliKnee
  • OutR. CamachoChest
Show 1 more
  • DoubtA. GomesBack

From our match data feed · updated ET.

Match context

Stadium
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
22,565 seats · grass
Rest days
FC Dallas 4Columbus Crew 4
Matches in the last 14 days: FC Dallas 2 · Columbus Crew 3
Coaches
Eric Quill
FC Dallas, since Feb 2026
L. Courtois
Columbus Crew, since Feb 2026

Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

Who do you think wins?

Fans' picks appear after 5 votes · voting closes at kick-off

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