Sutton United vs Aldershot Town prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Sutton to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three agree Sutton are rightly favoured, with the Coach and Dressing Room near the published 52% and the Sceptic shading the draw on six meetings without a Sutton win. On goals, the Coach sees late chances at both ends, but the Sceptic notes both sides' 43% over-2.5 rates and the low-scoring head-to-head, so the over line is the main point of doubt.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSutton score 7 of their 15 league goals in the last 15 minutes and concede 1.50 per game; Aldershot concede 6 in the final 15 and score 1.57 per game away. Both teams score in 55% of the published numbers, and Sutton have just one clean sheet in five at home.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo mid-table sides with identical records; Sutton's home form gives them the edge.
Both have 18 points from 14 games, well clear of the Relegation places (21-24) and far from the Play-offs.
Aldershot: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look fair, but the head-to-head draw pattern argues for a tighter game than 55% over 2.5.
The last six meetings: 4 draws, 2.0 goals per game, Sutton winless. Aldershot's league games go over 2.5 only 43% of the time and both teams score in just 43% of Sutton's. The 52% home price looks right; the 55% over line looks a touch high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Sutton United are favourites at 52%, with Aldershot Town on 23% and the draw on 25%. Sutton United are 16th and Aldershot Town 14th in the National League. In their last five league games, Sutton United won none and Aldershot Town one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sutton United win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Aldershot Town win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sutton United and 1.1 from Aldershot Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 25% | 23% | Stats preview | #1704 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sutton United: last 6
LWWLDL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Harrogate Town | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Truro City FA Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs West Bromwich Albion U21 National League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Boreham Wood | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Kidderminster Harriers | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | at Tamworth | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLDW
Aldershot Town: last 6
LWDWLL · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Wealdstone | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Tadley Calleva FA Cup | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Tadley Calleva FA Cup | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Norwich City U21 National League Cup | 5–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Altrincham | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Carlisle | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLW
Season stats
| Sutton United | Aldershot Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.21 |
| 1.14 | Scored per game at home | 1.57 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 2.21 | Yellow cards per game | 2.29 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Sutton United | Aldershot Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | -4 | 18 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Sutton United | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sutton United won 0, Aldershot Town 2, 4 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Aldershot Town | 2–2 | Sutton United | National League |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Sutton United | 0–0 | Aldershot Town | National League |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Aldershot Town | 1–1 | Sutton United | National League |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Sutton United | 1–1 | Aldershot Town | National League |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Sutton United | 0–1 | Aldershot Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Sutton United | 1–2 | Aldershot Town | Friendlies Clubs |
Match context
- Stadium
- VBS Community Stadium, Sutton, Surrey
- 7,032 seats · artificial turf
- Rest days
- Sutton United 4Aldershot Town 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sutton United 2 · Aldershot Town 3
- Coaches
- Jon Meeney
- Sutton United, since Aug 2025
- John Coleman
- Aldershot Town, since Aug 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
