AFC Hornchurch vs Yeovil Town prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Yeovil to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The coach and sceptic both see goals: Yeovil score in bursts, especially late, and the sceptic argues the 53% over 2.5 line undersells a 64%-64% over record. The dressing room adds Hornchurch's strong home run as the main counterweight.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersYeovil's late scoring burst against Hornchurch's soft mid-game defence shapes this.
Yeovil have scored 11 of their goals in the last 15 minutes, while Hornchurch concede most either side of half-time (7 in 31-45, 5 in 61-75). Hornchurch have yet to score in the opening 15 minutes all season.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureYeovil sit in the play-off places and have the stronger platform, but Hornchurch are no pushover at home.
Yeovil are 6th with 25 points from 14 games, inside the play-off places (2-7); Hornchurch are 10th on 21 points. Hornchurch are W7 D0 L7 - no draws all season. Their home form reads W D W W W with 9 scored and 2 conceded.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe over 2.5 line at 53% looks slightly low given both sides' scoring profiles.
Both teams run at 64% over 2.5 this season, yet the published over is only 53%. Yeovil have failed to score in 0% of matches and score 2.17 per game away, while Hornchurch fail to score 36% of the time.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Yeovil Town are slight favourites at 41%, with AFC Hornchurch on 32% and the draw on 27%. AFC Hornchurch are 10th and Yeovil Town 6th in the National League. In their last five league games, AFC Hornchurch won two and Yeovil Town three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Hornchurch win or draw
- 59%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Yeovil Town win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.3 goals from AFC Hornchurch and 1.5 from Yeovil Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 27% | 41% | Stats preview | #1671 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Hornchurch: last 6
LWWDLW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Uxbridge FA Cup | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eastleigh | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Fulham U21 National League Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Harrogate Town | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Aldershot Town | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWWW
Yeovil Town: last 6
LWDWWD · 22 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Altrincham | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Leatherhead FA Cup | 5–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Leatherhead FA Cup | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Wealdstone | 6–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Boston United | 6–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Worthing | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DWWDL
Season stats
| AFC Hornchurch | Yeovil Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 2.36 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.21 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 0.88 | Scored per game away | 2.17 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 36% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1.79 | Yellow cards per game | 1.71 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | AFC Hornchurch | Yeovil Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Southend | 14 | +12 | 28 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Hornchurch Stadium, London
- 3,800 seats · grass
- Rest days
- AFC Hornchurch 3Yeovil Town 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Hornchurch 2 · Yeovil Town 3
- Coaches
- D. McMahon
- AFC Hornchurch, since Aug 2024
- Billy Rowley
- Yeovil Town, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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