Worthing vs Southend United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Southend to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attack-minded sides point to goals, with Southend's late surge the edge
Worthing concede seven of their goals in the last 15 minutes and Southend score ten there, so a late swing looks likely.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo promotion hopefuls with almost nothing between them in the table
Only one point separates them, 28 to 27, with both sitting in the play-off places behind the title spot. Worthing have won four of their last five at home, scoring 11, and both sides had two games in 14 days with equal rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look broadly fair, though the away lean may be a touch strong
The market gives Southend 42% and Worthing 36%; the records are near-identical and Southend's away run of W D W D D supports a slight away lean, but Worthing's home form justifies keeping this tight. Over 2.5 at 69% matches both teams' 79% rates, so it looks fair.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Southend United are slight favourites at 42%, with Worthing on 36% and the draw on 22%. Worthing are 4th and Southend United 3rd in the National League. In their last five league games, Worthing won four and Southend United two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Worthing win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Southend United win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 69%
- No
- 31%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Worthing and 1.9 from Southend United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (5%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 23% | 42% | Stats preview | #1674 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Worthing: last 6
WLLWWD · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Kidderminster Harriers | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Wealdstone FA Cup | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Ipswich Town U21 National League Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Solihull Moors | 5–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Gateshead | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | at Yeovil Town | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWWD
Southend United: last 6
DLWWDL · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs FC Halifax Town | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Berkhamsted FA Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Boston United | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs AFC Fylde | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | at Eastleigh | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Barrow | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WDWDD
Season stats
| Worthing | Southend United | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.07 | Goals scored per game | 2.36 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.14 |
| 2.14 | Scored per game away | 2.57 |
| 79% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 79% |
| 79% | Both teams scored | 93% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1.29 | Yellow cards per game | 1.93 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Worthing | Southend United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend United | 14 | +12 | 28 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Sussex Transport Community Stadium, Worthing, West Sussex
- 4,000 seats · artificial turf
- Rest days
- Worthing 3Southend United 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Worthing 2 · Southend United 2
- Coaches
- Adam Hinshelwood
- Worthing, since Aug 2026
- Kieron Dyer
- Southend United, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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