Boston United vs Gateshead prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Boston to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree the home side are favourites despite sitting 21st: Gateshead's away collapse and the head-to-head record point the same way, and even the sceptic only nudges the away chance up slightly. On goals, the sceptic leans under while the coach leans over, but all three stay near the published 59% for a third goal.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Boston United's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth defences leak, but Gateshead barely score away
Boston concede 1.93 per game and have no clean-sheet habit at 14%; Gateshead concede 2.38 and keep one just 8% of the time, with 8 of their goals against coming in the last 15 minutes. Gateshead score only 0.43 per game away and fail to score in 46% of matches, which dents the both-teams-score case.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Boston have the points and the rest edge
Boston sit 21st on 12 points, inside the Relegation places, while Gateshead are 24th with just 4 points from 13 games. Boston have lost five of six recently but gained three days' rest; Gateshead had seven days yet arrive on five straight away defeats. Home side should edge a tense one.
Boston: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away price looks too short for a side with one away goal all season
Gateshead's published 16% seems generous given they have scored once on their last five trips. But Boston's 0-6 defeat at Yeovil and five straight home defeats suggest the hosts' 61% is too high too. The head-to-head record, four Boston wins in six, supports the favourite but I'd trim both extremes.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Boston United are clear favourites at 60%, with Gateshead on 16% and the draw on 24%. Boston United are 21st and Gateshead 24th in the National League. Neither side has won any of their last five league games.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Boston United win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Gateshead win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Boston United and 1.0 from Gateshead. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 24% | 16% | Stats preview | #1726 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Boston United: last 6
LLLLLD · 10 scored, 22 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Eastleigh | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Scunthorpe FA Cup | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Southampton U21 National League Cup | 5–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Southend | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Yeovil Town | 0–6 | L |
| 29 Sep | at FC Halifax Town | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLLLD
Gateshead: last 6
LDDLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Stafford Rangers FA Cup | 0–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Stafford Rangers FA Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Wolves U21 National League Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at FC Halifax Town | 1–4 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Worthing | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Altrincham | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Boston United | Gateshead | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Goals scored per game | 0.62 |
| 1.93 | Goals conceded per game | 2.38 |
| 0.86 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 1.57 | Scored per game away | 0.43 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 46% |
| 2.21 | Yellow cards per game | 2.08 |
League matches only, 14 and 13 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Boston United | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Boston United won 4, Gateshead 2, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2026 | Boston United | 1–0 | Gateshead | National League |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Gateshead | 1–3 | Boston United | National League |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Boston United | 2–1 | Gateshead | National League |
| 4 Jan 2025 | Gateshead | 1–3 | Boston United | FA Trophy |
| 24 Sep 2024 | Gateshead | 2–0 | Boston United | National League |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Boston United | 1–2 | Gateshead | National League - North |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Jakemans Community Stadium, Boston, Lincolnshire
- 5,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Boston United 3Gateshead 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Boston United 2 · Gateshead 2
- Coaches
- G. Coughlan
- Boston United, since Nov 2024
- Alun Armstrong
- Gateshead, since Aug 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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