Tamworth vs Scunthorpe United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tamworth to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Tamworth edge it, but both leak goals, so the over 2.5 case at 67% holds up. The Coach and Sceptic both flag Scunthorpe's away weakness, while the Dressing Room stresses the table stakes for two struggling sides.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth defences leak, so goals look more likely than a clean result.
Tamworth keep clean sheets just 15% of the time and both teams score in 85% of their games; Scunthorpe score nothing at all in 38%. Tamworth concede heavily before half-time (10 goals in 31-45) but score late, with 7 in the final 15 minutes. Scunthorpe never score in the opening quarter-hour.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo bottom-four sides, and Tamworth's fresher legs could decide it.
Tamworth are 20th on 14 points, Scunthorpe 22nd on 10, with places 21-24 in the Relegation zone. Tamworth have lost their last two; Scunthorpe two of their last three. But Tamworth have had 10 days off to Scunthorpe's 3, and Scunthorpe have played twice in 14 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongH2H says Scunthorpe, the season says Tamworth - I side with the season.
Scunthorpe won 3 of the last 4 H2H with 2.8 goals per game, yet sit at just 33% here. Tamworth have scored in every league game and conceded 2.31 per game; Scunthorpe score only 0.86 away. Numbers look close to right, though I nudge Tamworth slightly above 43% and keep goals high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Tamworth are slight favourites at 43%, with Scunthorpe United on 33% and the draw on 24%. Tamworth are 20th and Scunthorpe United 22nd in the National League. In their last five league games, Tamworth won three and Scunthorpe United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tamworth win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Scunthorpe United win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Tamworth and 1.6 from Scunthorpe United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 25% | 33% | Stats preview | #1670 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tamworth: last 6
LLWWWL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Carlisle FA Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Barrow | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Leeds United U21 National League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Sutton Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Aldershot Town | 1–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWWWL
Scunthorpe United: last 6
LWDLLW · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Woking | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Boston United FA Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Derby County U21 National League Cup | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at AFC Fylde | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | at Barrow | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Hartlepool | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLLLW
Season stats
| Tamworth | Scunthorpe United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.31 |
| 2.31 | Goals conceded per game | 1.85 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 1.43 | Scored per game away | 0.86 |
| 85% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 85% | Both teams scored | 54% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.23 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Tamworth | Scunthorpe United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Tamworth won 1, Scunthorpe United 3, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | Scunthorpe United | 3–1 | Tamworth | National League |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Tamworth | 1–2 | Scunthorpe United | National League |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Scunthorpe United | 0–1 | Tamworth | National League - North |
| 5 Aug 2023 | Tamworth | 1–2 | Scunthorpe United | National League - North |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Lamb Ground, Tamworth, Staffordshire
- 4,065 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Tamworth 10Scunthorpe United 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tamworth 1 · Scunthorpe United 2
- Coaches
- A. Peaks
- Tamworth, since Feb 2022
- A. Butler
- Scunthorpe United, since May 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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