AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fylde to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The Coach and the table both point to goals, the Sceptic sees the over 2.5 line of 64% as fair given 3.7 goals per game in recent head-to-heads. A home win with goals looks the natural read.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFylde's late goals and Hartlepool's leaky away defence point to goals
Fylde score 1.71 per game and 8 of their conceded goals came in the final 15 minutes; Hartlepool concede 5 in 46-60 and ship 11 in their last five away.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTable gap and home form favour Fylde despite a wobble
Fylde sit 7th on 23 points in the play-off places (2-7); Hartlepool are 19th on 15 with no draws and nine defeats. Fylde's home run reads W W L L D with 10 scored; Hartlepool away is W L L L L, 6 scored, 11 conceded. Both had 3 days' rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket looks fair, though Fylde's home price may be a touch short
Fylde lost 0-4 at Boreham Wood and 1-3 at Southend recently, yet are priced 57%. Head-to-head: Fylde 3 wins, Hartlepool 2, 3.7 goals per game supports over 2.5 at 64%. Hartlepool won 4-2 at Forest Green, so 21% away isn't generous.
Fylde: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
AFC Fylde are favourites at 57%, with Hartlepool United on 21% and the draw on 22%. AFC Fylde are 7th and Hartlepool United 19th in the National League. In their last five league games, AFC Fylde won two and Hartlepool United two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Fylde win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Hartlepool United win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 2.1 goals from AFC Fylde and 1.2 from Hartlepool United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 22% | 21% | Stats preview | #1716 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Fylde: last 6
LWWLLW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Atherton Collieries FA Cup | 5–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Scunthorpe | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Southend | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Carlisle | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Boston United | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLLD
Hartlepool United: last 6
WLLWLL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs AFC Hornchurch | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Marine FA Cup | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Newcastle United U21 National League Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Forest Green | 4–2 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Tamworth | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Harrogate Town | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| AFC Fylde | Hartlepool United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.86 |
| 1.88 | Scored per game away | 1.14 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 1.71 | Yellow cards per game | 2.21 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | AFC Fylde | Hartlepool United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AFC Fylde won 3, Hartlepool United 2, 1 draw; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2025 | AFC Fylde | 2–1 | Hartlepool United | National League |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Hartlepool United | 2–0 | AFC Fylde | National League |
| 9 Jan 2024 | AFC Fylde | 2–1 | Hartlepool United | National League |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Hartlepool United | 3–1 | AFC Fylde | National League |
| 13 Aug 2019 | Hartlepool United | 2–2 | AFC Fylde | National League |
| 12 Mar 2019 | AFC Fylde | 4–2 | Hartlepool United | National League |
Match context
- Stadium
- Mill Farm Stadium, Wesham
- 6,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- AFC Fylde 3Hartlepool United 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Fylde 2 · Hartlepool United 2
- Coaches
- Chris Beech
- AFC Fylde, since Sep 2025
- S. Grayson
- Hartlepool United, since Jul 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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