AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fylde to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a competitive match where Fylde's home form is a key factor. While both teams are fighting for Play-off positions, the statistical evidence points towards a high-scoring game, likely featuring Fylde's offensive strength.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Coach thinks AFC Fylde are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAFC Fylde's strong home attacking record should give them the edge over the road.
Fylde averages 1.50 goals at home and scored 7 goals in the 31-45 period. Hornchurch averages only 0.88 goals away, suggesting a struggle to find the net on the road.
Fylde: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are locked in the Play-offs zone, making this a high-stakes encounter.
Fylde sits 7th with 23 points from 14 games. Hornchurch is 10th with 21 points. Both teams are currently in the Play-offs zone.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may underestimate the defensive fragility of AFC Hornchurch away from home.
Hornchurch has conceded 9 goals in their last 5 away matches. Fylde has a 71% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
AFC Fylde are favourites at 54%, with AFC Hornchurch on 23% and the draw on 23%. AFC Fylde are 7th and AFC Hornchurch 10th in the National League. In their last five league games, AFC Fylde won two and AFC Hornchurch two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Fylde win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- AFC Hornchurch win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 2.0 goals from AFC Fylde and 1.3 from AFC Hornchurch. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 23% | 23% | Stats preview | #1891 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Fylde: last 6
LWWLLW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Atherton Collieries FA Cup | 5–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Scunthorpe | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Southend | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Carlisle | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Boston United | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLLD
AFC Hornchurch: last 6
LWWDLW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Uxbridge FA Cup | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eastleigh | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Fulham U21 National League Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Harrogate Town | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Aldershot Town | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWLLL
Season stats
| AFC Fylde | AFC Hornchurch | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.14 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.88 | Scored per game away | 0.88 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 36% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 1.71 | Yellow cards per game | 1.79 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | AFC Fylde | AFC Hornchurch |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Mill Farm Stadium, Wesham
- 6,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- AFC Fylde 6AFC Hornchurch 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Fylde 2 · AFC Hornchurch 2
- Coaches
- Chris Beech
- AFC Fylde, since Sep 2025
- D. McMahon
- AFC Hornchurch, since Aug 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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