Barrow vs Eastleigh prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Barrow to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published 57/23/20, with Barrow's winning run, home record of four wins in five and Eastleigh's poor away scoring all pointing the same way. On goals, the 59% over-2.5 figure is broadly backed by Barrow's 69% over rate and late scoring pattern, with only mild caution from Eastleigh's 50% over rate.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Barrow's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBarrow score most after the hour (13 of 22 goals from 61 minutes on) and have kept clean sheets in 23% of games. Eastleigh concede 1.57 per game and ship most late, with 10 conceded after 61 minutes.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBarrow's five-match winning run and home form make them firm favourites
Barrow sit 9th on 21 points from 13 games, four points clear of Eastleigh in 15th on 18 from 14. Barrow have won five straight and taken four home wins and a draw in their last five at home, conceding once. Eastleigh have lost four of five away. Barrow also have an extra three days' rest.
Barrow: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look about right, though Eastleigh's away scoring is a real worry
Published 57/23/20 matches the evidence: Barrow unbeaten in six, Eastleigh with one away win in five, scoring just 0.67 per game on the road. The 59% over-2.5 line sits well with Barrow's 69% over rate, though Eastleigh's 50% tempers it slightly. I see no strong case for moving far from the numbers.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Barrow are favourites at 57%, with Eastleigh on 20% and the draw on 23%. Barrow are 9th and Eastleigh 15th in the National League. In their last five league games, Barrow won five and Eastleigh one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Barrow win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Eastleigh win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Barrow and 1.1 from Eastleigh. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 23% | 20% | Stats preview | #2032 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Barrow: last 6
WDWWWW · 13 scored, 4 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Gloucester City FA Cup | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Gloucester City FA Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Tamworth | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Wealdstone | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Scunthorpe | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Southend | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Eastleigh: last 6
WWLLDL · 10 scored, 14 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Boston United | 4–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Brentwood Town FA Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at AFC Hornchurch | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Woking | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Southend | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Harrogate Town | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Barrow | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 1.57 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.57 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 69% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 2.77 | Yellow cards per game | 1.57 |
League matches only, 13 and 14 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Barrow | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | -4 | 18 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
Match context
- Stadium
- SO Legal Stadium, Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria
- 6,500 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Barrow 10Eastleigh 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Barrow 1 · Eastleigh 1
- Coaches
- Sam Foley
- Barrow, since Aug 2025
- K. Davis
- Eastleigh, since Jul 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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