Boston United vs Scunthorpe United prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Boston to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings lean towards a home win but with low conviction, so Boston United 40% versus Scunthorpe 36% with a 24% draw looks fair. On goals, the coach and the sceptic both see the 60% over 2.5 line as slightly generous, while the dressing room's view is more balanced.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, but Boston score so little at home that a draw looms.
Boston concede 1.93 per game with just 14% clean sheets and score only 0.86 at home, while most of their goals against come late: 7 in the last 15 minutes. Scunthorpe fail to score 38% of the time and have 8% clean sheets, but score steadily after the break with 12 goals after half-time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides sit in the bottom two, so pressure points make this tight and tense.
Boston are 21st on 12 points from 14 games, Scunthorpe 22nd on 10 from 13, both inside the relegation places. Boston's home form is L L L L D and Scunthorpe have lost 9 of 13 league games.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe model's 40% for Boston looks too kind given the cup result and form.
Scunthorpe beat Boston 3-1 at Boston in the FA Cup this month, yet the home side are priced up at 40%. Boston's last six are all defeats bar one draw, conceding 6 at Yeovil and 6 goals to Southampton U21.
Scunthorpe: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Boston United are slight favourites at 40%, with Scunthorpe United on 36% and the draw on 24%. Boston United are 21st and Scunthorpe United 22nd in the National League. In their last five league games, Boston United won none and Scunthorpe United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Boston United win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Scunthorpe United win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Boston United and 1.5 from Scunthorpe United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 24% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1890 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Boston United: last 6
LLLLLD · 10 scored, 22 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Eastleigh | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Scunthorpe FA Cup | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Southampton U21 National League Cup | 5–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Southend | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Yeovil Town | 0–6 | L |
| 29 Sep | at FC Halifax Town | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLLLD
Scunthorpe United: last 6
LWDLLW · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Woking | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Boston United FA Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Derby County U21 National League Cup | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at AFC Fylde | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | at Barrow | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Hartlepool | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLLLW
Season stats
| Boston United | Scunthorpe United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Goals scored per game | 1.31 |
| 1.93 | Goals conceded per game | 1.85 |
| 0.86 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 1.57 | Scored per game away | 0.86 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 54% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 38% |
| 2.21 | Yellow cards per game | 2.23 |
League matches only, 14 and 13 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Boston United | Scunthorpe United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Boston United won 1, Scunthorpe United 0, 2 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Scunthorpe United | 3–6 | Boston United | National League |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Boston United | 1–1 | Scunthorpe United | National League |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Scunthorpe United | 0–0 | Boston United | National League - North - Play-offs |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Jakemans Community Stadium, Boston, Lincolnshire
- 5,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Boston United 7Scunthorpe United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Boston United 1 · Scunthorpe United 1
- Coaches
- G. Coughlan
- Boston United, since Nov 2024
- A. Butler
- Scunthorpe United, since May 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
