Altrincham vs Carlisle United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Carlisle to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On the result, the readings split between a narrow Carlisle edge on the numbers and respect for Altrincham's strong home run, landing near the published 28-25-47 with a slight tilt back towards the hosts.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Altrincham's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Altrincham favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely and concede plenty, so goals look likely
Carlisle score 8 of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Altrincham concede most after the break.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAltrincham's home run gives them a platform against a mid-table visitor
Altrincham sit 5th with 27 points from 14 games, inside the play-off places, and have won four of their last five at home, scoring 10 and conceding 3. Carlisle are 11th on 20 points, five back, though unbeaten in their last three league games.
Altrincham: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCarlisle's away record argues the market may have them slightly short
Altrincham's games go over 2.5 goals 79% of the time, which supports the 61% over price. The 1X2 looks close to fair, maybe a touch generous to the visitors.
Altrincham: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Carlisle United are favourites at 47%, with Altrincham on 28% and the draw on 25%. Altrincham are 5th and Carlisle United 11th in the National League. In their last five league games, Altrincham won four and Carlisle United three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Altrincham win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Carlisle United win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Altrincham and 1.8 from Carlisle United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 23% | 35% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1945 | |
| 2 | 28% | 25% | 47% | Prices moved | #2142 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Altrincham: last 6
WWDWLW · 13 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Yeovil Town | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | at United of Manchester FA Cup | 6–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs United of Manchester FA Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Aldershot Town | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Sep | at Gateshead | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Carlisle United: last 6
WWDWWL · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Solihull Moors | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Tamworth FA Cup | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Kidderminster Harriers | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Aldershot Town | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | at AFC Fylde | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Woking | 2–5 | L |
Last 5 away: WWWLL
Season stats
| Altrincham | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | Goals scored per game | 1.79 |
| 1.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game at home | 2.14 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 1.43 |
| 79% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 79% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 2.29 | Yellow cards per game | 1.71 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Altrincham | Carlisle United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | +12 | 28 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle United | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- The J. Davidson Stadium, Altrincham, Cheshire
- 6,085 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Altrincham 7Carlisle United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Altrincham 2 · Carlisle United 1
- Coaches
- Phil Parkinson
- Altrincham, since Aug 2025
- Mark Hughes
- Carlisle United, since Aug 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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