Boreham Wood vs Hartlepool United prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Boreham Wood to win: 72%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 64%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: a strong home win, with the coach and sceptic both nudging the goals line slightly below the published 64%. The table gap, Wood's unbeaten run and Hartlepool's away record make the 72% home number look well earned, with over 2.5 goals a modest lean rather than a certainty.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersWood's late-goal surge meets Hartlepool's leaky second half
Boreham Wood score most after the hour (19 of 38 goals from 61 minutes on) and concede little late. Hartlepool concede steadily all game and score most late themselves, but their away defence has leaked 11 in five. Both teams score sits at 53%, and Wood's 71% BTTS rate backs goals.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop vs 19th: leaders' momentum should tell
Boreham Wood sit 1st with 38 points from 14, unbeaten (W12 D2 L0), five home wins in a row with 20 scored. Hartlepool are 19th on 15 points with nine defeats and one away win in five. Both had 7 days' rest, so the leaders' run and home form shape the game.
Boreham Wood: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNumbers look fair, maybe a shade high on goals
Hartlepool's 43% over-2.5 rate and 36% failed-to-score rate argue the 64% over line is slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Boreham Wood are clear favourites at 72%, with Hartlepool United on 11% and the draw on 17%. Boreham Wood are 1st and Hartlepool United 19th in the National League. In their last five league games, Boreham Wood won five and Hartlepool United two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Boreham Wood win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Hartlepool United win or draw
- 28%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Boreham Wood and 0.9 from Hartlepool United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72% | 17% | 11% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2071 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Boreham Wood: last 6
WWWWWW · 22 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs AFC Fylde | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Middlesbrough U21 National League Cup | 7–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Woking FA Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Sutton Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Altrincham | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Kidderminster Harriers | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Hartlepool United: last 6
WLLWLL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs AFC Hornchurch | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Marine FA Cup | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Newcastle United U21 National League Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Forest Green | 4–2 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Tamworth | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Harrogate Town | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| Boreham Wood | Hartlepool United | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.93 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.86 |
| 2.43 | Scored per game away | 1.14 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 1.43 | Yellow cards per game | 2.21 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Boreham Wood | Hartlepool United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | +12 | 28 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Meadow Park, Borehamwood, Hertfordshire
- 4,502 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Boreham Wood 7Hartlepool United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Boreham Wood 2 · Hartlepool United 1
- Coaches
- Luke Garrard
- Boreham Wood, since Aug 2025
- S. Grayson
- Hartlepool United, since Jul 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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