Aldershot Town vs Gateshead prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Aldershot to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 54%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a clear advantage for Aldershot, driven by their superior home form and attacking output. Despite the Sceptic's caution regarding recent form, the data strongly supports a home victory with a high likelihood of goals being scored.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAldershot's home attacking prowess and Gateshead's late defensive frailties suggest a high-scoring encounter.
Aldershot has scored 1.57 goals per game at home and frequently finds the net in the 31-45, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 periods. Gateshead concedes heavily late, having allowed 8 goals in the final 15 minutes of their season.
Aldershot: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe disparity in league positions and recent form heavily favours the home side in this fixture.
Aldershot sits 14th with 18 points, while Gateshead is struggling in 24th place with only 4 points from 13 games. Gateshead has endured five consecutive away losses, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 18.
Aldershot: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongWhile Aldershot is strong at home, Gateshead's defensive collapse in the final minutes could lead to a surprising result.
However, the 77% chance of at least two goals aligns with the high goals conceded rates of both teams.
Gateshead: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Aldershot Town are clear favourites at 66%, with Gateshead on 14% and the draw on 20%. Aldershot Town are 14th and Gateshead 24th in the National League. In their last five league games, Aldershot Town won one and Gateshead none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Aldershot Town win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Gateshead win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Aldershot Town and 0.8 from Gateshead. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 20% | 14% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2021 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Aldershot Town: last 6
LWDWLL · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Wealdstone | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Tadley Calleva FA Cup | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Tadley Calleva FA Cup | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Norwich City U21 National League Cup | 5–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Altrincham | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Carlisle | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDWLW
Gateshead: last 6
LDDLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Stafford Rangers FA Cup | 0–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Stafford Rangers FA Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Wolves U21 National League Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at FC Halifax Town | 1–4 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Worthing | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Altrincham | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Aldershot Town | Gateshead | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 0.62 |
| 1.21 | Goals conceded per game | 2.38 |
| 1.57 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.43 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 46% |
| 2.29 | Yellow cards per game | 2.08 |
League matches only, 14 and 13 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Aldershot Town | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | -4 | 18 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| … | |||||
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Electrical Services Stadium, Aldershot, Hampshire
- 7,100 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Aldershot Town 7Gateshead 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Aldershot Town 2 · Gateshead 1
- Coaches
- John Coleman
- Aldershot Town, since Aug 2025
- Alun Armstrong
- Gateshead, since Aug 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
