Worthing vs Sutton United prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Worthing to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings land on the same side: Worthing's home record, league position and late-goal pattern make them clear favourites, while Sutton's winless away run and quiet first halves temper the goals line. The 60% home number looks about right; the 61% over 2.5 is the one reading with genuine room for doubt.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLate goals on both sides point to a lively second half at Woodside Road.
Sutton's scoring is back-loaded too, 7 of 15 after the 75th, but they have not scored at all in minutes 31-45 this season. Both teams score in 58% of the model's cases.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTable says Worthing, but Sutton's away slump is the real story here.
Worthing sit 4th on 27 points from 14 games, inside the play-off places (2-7), and have won three of their last five at home, scoring 11. Sutton are 16th on 18 points and winless in five away games, L D L D L, with 3 scored and 10 conceded. Both had a full week to prepare.
Worthing: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 61% over 2.5 leans heavily on Worthing; Sutton's numbers cool it.
Worthing's 79% over-rate and 2.14 goals a game away drive the total, but Sutton sit at just 43% over 2.5 and 1.00 scored per game on the road, with 36% of matches scoreless for them.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Worthing are clear favourites at 60%, with Sutton United on 19% and the draw on 21%. Worthing are 4th and Sutton United 16th in the National League. In their last five league games, Worthing won four and Sutton United none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Worthing win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Sutton United win or draw
- 40%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Worthing and 1.1 from Sutton United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 21% | 19% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1992 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Worthing: last 6
WLLWWD · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Kidderminster Harriers | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Wealdstone FA Cup | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Ipswich Town U21 National League Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Solihull Moors | 5–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Gateshead | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | at Yeovil Town | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWWD
Sutton United: last 6
LWWLDL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Harrogate Town | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Truro City FA Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs West Bromwich Albion U21 National League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Boreham Wood | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Kidderminster Harriers | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | at Tamworth | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLDL
Season stats
| Worthing | Sutton United | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.07 | Goals scored per game | 1.07 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.14 |
| 2.14 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 79% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 79% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 1.29 | Yellow cards per game | 2.21 |
League matches only, 14 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Worthing | Sutton United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | +12 | 28 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | +16 | 25 | LWWDW |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | -4 | 18 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Sutton United | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Sussex Transport Community Stadium, Worthing, West Sussex
- 4,000 seats · artificial turf
- Rest days
- Worthing 6Sutton United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Worthing 1 · Sutton United 1
- Coaches
- Adam Hinshelwood
- Worthing, since Aug 2026
- Jon Meeney
- Sutton United, since Aug 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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