Tamworth vs Woking prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tamworth to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 73%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The coach leans on Woking's away scoring and late-game patterns, the dressing room stresses Tamworth's home wins and Woking's congested fortnight, and the sceptic sees the 73% over 2.5 figure as fair but flags Tamworth's leaky defence.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTamworth's leaky home defence against Woking's high-scoring away form points to goals
Woking average 1.71 per game away and have scored 14 in their last five on the road, and their goals cluster after half-time with 6 in minutes 61-75.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourteenth versus twentieth, but Tamworth's home wins and extra rest matter
Tamworth sit 20th with 14 points, two wins short of the play-offs places in a compressed National League, while Woking's 18 points from 14 games keep them 13th.
Tamworth: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair, but Tamworth's defence justifies the goals line
The 42/21/37 split seems right. Tamworth concede 2.31 per game with only 15% clean sheets, yet both teams score in 85% of their matches, so the 73% over 2.5 looks well supported.
Woking: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tamworth are slight favourites at 42%, with Woking on 37% and the draw on 21%. Tamworth are 20th and Woking 13th in the National League. In their last five league games, Tamworth won three and Woking three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tamworth win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Woking win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 73%
- 4+ goals
- 53%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 72%
- No
- 28%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Tamworth and 1.9 from Woking. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 3–1 (5%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 21% | 37% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1944 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tamworth: last 6
LLWWWL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Carlisle FA Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Barrow | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Leeds United U21 National League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Sutton Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Aldershot Town | 1–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWWWL
Woking: last 6
WLDLWL · 12 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Scunthorpe | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Boreham Wood FA Cup | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Leicester City U21 National League Cup | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Harrogate Town | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Eastleigh | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Solihull Moors | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WLWWD
Season stats
| Tamworth | Woking | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.64 |
| 2.31 | Goals conceded per game | 1.57 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game at home | 1.57 |
| 1.43 | Scored per game away | 1.71 |
| 85% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 85% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 43% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 1.86 |
League matches only, 13 and 14 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Tamworth | Woking |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | -4 | 18 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Lamb Ground, Tamworth, Staffordshire
- 4,065 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Tamworth 14Woking 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tamworth 0 · Woking 1
- Coaches
- A. Peaks
- Tamworth, since Feb 2022
- N. Ardley
- Woking, since Dec 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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