Tristán Suárez vs Deportivo Maipú prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tristán Suárez to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The one split is on goals: the coach leans under the 2.5 line while the sceptic sees Maipú's away scoring keeping over 2.5 live, so the 37% published over figure sits within their range.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Deportivo Maipú's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Deportivo Maipú favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSuárez's defence should smother a leaky Maipú attack
Tristán Suárez concede just 0.46 per game with 69% clean sheets, while Maipú concede 0.97 and keep only 31% clean sheets. Suárez's home form shows five games without conceding. Maipú's 46% both-teams-scored rate meets the division's stingiest defence, so a low-scoring home win looks the shape.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop of the table at home, with rest on their side
Tristán Suárez sit 1st on 63 points from 35 games, unbeaten in their last six with four draws and two wins, and have six days' rest. The leaders' home record of W D D W W underlines the gap.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair, but the low total may be understated
But Maipú score 1.18 per game away and 46% of their matches see both teams score, against a home side failing to score in 37% of games. The 37% over 2.5 line could be a shade generous to the under.
Deportivo Maipú: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tristán Suárez are clear favourites at 63%, with Deportivo Maipú on 13% and the draw on 24%. Tristán Suárez are 1st and Deportivo Maipú 7th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Tristán Suárez won two and Deportivo Maipú three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tristán Suárez win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Deportivo Maipú win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 34%
- No
- 66%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Tristán Suárez and 0.6 from Deportivo Maipú. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 31% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2007 | |
| 2 | 63% | 24% | 13% | Prices moved | #2158 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tristán Suárez: last 6
DWDDWD · 3 scored, 1 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Almagro | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Patronato | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Colegiales | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Quilmes | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Midland | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs Atlanta | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDDWW
Deportivo Maipú: last 6
WLDWWD · 7 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Club Atlético Güemes | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Chacarita Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs San Martin S.J. | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Oct | at Nueva Chicago | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Temperley | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Gimnasia Jujuy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDLW
Season stats
| Tristán Suárez | Deportivo Maipú | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Goals scored per game | 1.23 |
| 0.46 | Goals conceded per game | 0.97 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game at home | 1.28 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 1.18 |
| 23% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 69% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 37% | Failed to score | 34% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristán Suárez | 35 | +18 | 63 | DWDDW |
| 2 | Atlanta | 35 | +8 | 61 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Temperley | 35 | +12 | 60 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 35 | +8 | 58 | LWDLD |
| 5 | Midland | 35 | +14 | 54 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 35 | +3 | 52 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipú | 35 | +9 | 51 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 35 | +2 | 48 | DDDLL |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
Match context
- Travel for Deportivo Maipú
- 227 km
- Rest days
- Tristán Suárez 6Deportivo Maipú 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tristán Suárez 2 · Deportivo Maipú 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 23°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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