San Martín (San Juan) vs Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
San Martín (San Juan) to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 52%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a closely contested match. While San Martín's defensive stats are strong, Gimnasia's better league position and offensive metrics suggest they are the slight favourites. The market consensus on the over 2.5 goals line seems well-supported by the data.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSan Martín's defensive stability at home is a key factor against Gimnasia's higher offensive output on the road.
San Martín scores 1.29 per game at home while conceding only 1.00. Gimnasia scores 1.12 away but concedes 1.26. Both teams have a 57% and 66% rate of scoring against each other, respectively.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGimnasia's superior league position and overall record give them a slight advantage heading into this encounter.
Gimnasia sits 4th with 58 points, while San Martín is 9th with 48 points.
Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy): slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published probabilities appear fair, reflecting the competitive nature and mixed form of both sides.
San Martín's recent home form includes 3 wins in 5 matches. Gimnasia's away record shows 2 wins in 5 matches. The season average goals per match is 1.96.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
San Martín (San Juan) are favourites at 48%, with Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) on 27% and the draw on 25%. San Martín (San Juan) are 9th and Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) 4th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, San Martín (San Juan) won none and Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Martín (San Juan) win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.6 goals from San Martín (San Juan) and 1.1 from Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy). (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 25% | 27% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1941 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Martín (San Juan): last 6
DDDLLW · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Nueva Chicago | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Temperley | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Deportivo Maipu | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Almagro | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Patronato | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Colegiales | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWDW
Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy): last 6
LWDLDD · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Atlanta | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Nueva Chicago | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Temperley | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Sep | vs San Martin Tucuman | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Deportivo Maipu | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDWD
Season stats
| San Martín (San Juan) | Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | Goals scored per game | 1.49 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.26 |
| 1.29 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 1.12 |
| 34% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 66% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 35 | +18 | 63 | DWDDW |
| 2 | Atlanta | 35 | +8 | 61 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Temperley | 35 | +12 | 60 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) | 35 | +8 | 58 | LWDLD |
| 5 | Midland | 35 | +14 | 54 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 35 | +3 | 52 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 35 | +9 | 51 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 9 | San Martín (San Juan) | 35 | +2 | 48 | DDDLL |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | -9 | 43 | WLWDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- San Martín (San Juan) 5Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Martín (San Juan) 2 · Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 30°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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