Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Chacarita Juniors to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 78%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings lean towards Chacarita: the style data favours their home attack against a side short on away goals, the table context gives them the stronger recent run and rest, and even the sceptic finds the published numbers roughly fair. A low-scoring home edge sums up the 44/34/22 split and the modest 22% over line.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHome comfort and the fresher legs edge a tight mid-table pairing towards Chacarita.
Chacarita sit 15th on 39 points, Nueva Chicago 17th on 37, both from 35 games, so little separates them. But the hosts have won three of their last six and take six rest days to the visitors' five, who played twice in 14 days and arrive on one win in six.
Chacarita Juniors: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair; the over line sits slightly above what the record suggests.
The model's 44/34/22 and 22% over 2.5 line up with the season: 26% and 23% over 2.5 rates, both-teams-score around 29-31%, expected goals 1.0 to 0.6. Nueva Chicago's scoring drought (failed to score 51%) tempers any upside, so I'd shade the draw a touch without breaking from the numbers.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Chacarita Juniors are slight favourites at 44%, with Nueva Chicago on 22% and the draw on 34%. Chacarita Juniors are 15th and Nueva Chicago 17th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Chacarita Juniors won three and Nueva Chicago one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Chacarita Juniors win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 66%
- Nueva Chicago win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 48%
- 3+ goals
- 22%
- 4+ goals
- 8%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 29%
- No
- 71%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Chacarita Juniors and 0.6 from Nueva Chicago. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–0 (20%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 1–0 (20%), 0–1 (12%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 34% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1857 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Chacarita Juniors: last 6
WWLWLW · 8 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Temperley | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Deportivo Maipu | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Almagro | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Patronato | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Colegiales | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Quilmes | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLL
Nueva Chicago: last 6
DLLLWD · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs San Martin S.J. | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Gimnasia Jujuy | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Temperley | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Oct | vs Deportivo Maipu | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Almagro | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs Patronato | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWLLL
Season stats
| Chacarita Juniors | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.77 | Goals scored per game | 0.71 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.97 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game at home | 0.94 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 0.47 |
| 26% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 31% |
| 34% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 51% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | -9 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 14 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 35 | -8 | 39 | WWLWL |
| 16 | Patronato | 35 | -6 | 37 | LLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 35 | -9 | 37 | DLLLW |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 35 | -34 | 26 | LWLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Nueva Chicago
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Chacarita Juniors 6Nueva Chicago 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Chacarita Juniors 1 · Nueva Chicago 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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