Agropecuario vs Almagro prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Agropecuario to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 67%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The analysis suggests a tight contest where Agropecuario's home form and rest provide a slight edge. While the market suggests a higher chance of goals, the season statistics for both teams point towards a more cautious affair.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAgropecuario's home scoring rate is strong, but Almagro's away defensive record is a significant concern.
Agropecuario has scored 1.00 goals per game at home. Conversely, Almagro concedes 1.20 goals per game overall and 0.76 goals per game away. The competition average is 1.96 goals per match.
Almagro: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are closely matched in the league, but Agropecuario enters the match with a slight advantage in rest.
Agropecuario sits 12th with 43 points, having had 5 days rest. Almagro is 14th with 42 points and has had 6 days rest. Both teams have played 35 games.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe likelihood of both teams scoring may be overstated given Agropecuario's season record.
The published probability for both teams to score is 39%. However, Agropecuario has only managed to score in 31% of their season games. Almagro has a higher rate of 46%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Agropecuario are favourites at 47%, with Almagro on 24% and the draw on 29%. Agropecuario are 12th and Almagro 14th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Agropecuario won two and Almagro two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Agropecuario win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Almagro win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 60%
- 3+ goals
- 33%
- 4+ goals
- 15%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 39%
- No
- 61%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Agropecuario and 0.8 from Almagro. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 30% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1942 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Agropecuario: last 6
WLWDLW · 4 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Patronato | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Colegiales | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Quilmes | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Midland | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Atlanta | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWWW
Almagro: last 6
DLWWLL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Tristan Suarez | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Club Atlético Güemes | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Chacarita Juniors | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | at San Martin S.J. | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Nueva Chicago | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Temperley | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLWL
Season stats
| Agropecuario | Almagro | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Goals scored per game | 0.91 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.06 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 0.76 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| 31% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 37% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 35 | +2 | 48 | DDDLL |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | -9 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 14 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 35 | -8 | 39 | WWLWL |
| 16 | Patronato | 35 | -6 | 37 | LLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 35 | -9 | 37 | DLLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Almagro
- 14 km
- Rest days
- Agropecuario 5Almagro 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Agropecuario 1 · Almagro 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 14 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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