San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Deportivo Madryn to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 60%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a match where Deportivo Madryn holds the advantage. While San Miguel's home record is poor, the league gap and DM's away scoring suggest a competitive game, likely featuring multiple goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersDeportivo Madryn's away scoring ability is likely to exploit San Miguel's defensive weaknesses at home.
Conversely, Deportivo Madryn averages 1.12 goals per game away. The season average for this competition is 1.96 goals per match.
Deportivo Madryn: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe disparity in league standings suggests a clear difference in current stability and momentum.
Deportivo Madryn sits 4th in the table with 57 points from 35 games. San Miguel is 18th with 33 points from 35 games. Deportivo Madryn has a rest of 6 days, while San Miguel has 5 days.
Deportivo Madryn: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published probabilities appear accurate, reflecting San Miguel's poor recent home form.
San Miguel's last 5 home games saw them score 4 goals and concede 9. Their recent form includes four losses in their last six fixtures. Both teams have scored in 45% of matches.
Deportivo Madryn: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Deportivo Madryn are slight favourites at 44%, with San Miguel on 28% and the draw on 28%. San Miguel are 18th and Deportivo Madryn 4th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, San Miguel won none and Deportivo Madryn two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Miguel win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Deportivo Madryn win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 66%
- 3+ goals
- 40%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.0 goals from San Miguel and 1.3 from Deportivo Madryn. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 0–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 28% | 44% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1909 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Miguel: last 6
DLDLLD · 4 scored, 8 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Defensores De Belgrano | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Ciudad de Bolívar | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Almirante Brown | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Atletico Mitre | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at CA Estudiantes | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs All Boys | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLDLL
Deportivo Madryn: last 6
WDLWDW · 9 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs San Telmo | 4–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Acassuso | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Chaco For Ever | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | at Ferro Carril Oeste | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Central Norte | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Racing Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DWLLD
Season stats
| San Miguel | Deportivo Madryn | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.77 | Goals scored per game | 1.46 |
| 1.17 | Goals conceded per game | 0.89 |
| 0.88 | Scored per game at home | 1.78 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.12 |
| 31% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| 49% | Both teams scored | 51% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 37% |
| 37% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 35 | +19 | 63 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 35 | +14 | 58 | LLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 35 | +16 | 57 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 35 | +5 | 51 | WDDLL |
| 7 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| … | |||||
| 15 | All Boys | 35 | -9 | 38 | WDDLD |
| 16 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 17 | Acassuso | 35 | -10 | 34 | DDWLW |
| 18 | San Miguel | 35 | -14 | 33 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Deportivo Madryn
- 1,074 km
- Rest days
- San Miguel 5Deportivo Madryn 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Miguel 1 · Deportivo Madryn 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
