Atletico Rafaela vs Patronato prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Atletico Rafaela to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 74%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a tight match, with Rafaela holding a slight edge at home. The high draw probability and the defensive struggles of both teams suggest a low-scoring affair, though the home side's attacking output is notable.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRafaela's potent home attack is likely to challenge Patronato's defensive frailties.
Atletico Rafaela has scored 1.29 goals per game at home. Patronato has only managed 0.41 goals per game in their away fixtures.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRafaela enters the match with a significant points cushion over the struggling Patronato.
Atletico Rafaela sits in 11th place with 46 points from 35 games. Patronato is 16th in the table with 37 points. Both teams have 6 days rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high draw probability reflects the defensive vulnerabilities of both sides in this encounter.
The published draw probability is 33%. Both teams have conceded 1.00 goals per game in this competition. The over 2.5 goals line is published at 26%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Atletico Rafaela are slight favourites at 44%, with Patronato on 24% and the draw on 32%. Atletico Rafaela are 11th and Patronato 16th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Atletico Rafaela won one and Patronato two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atletico Rafaela win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 67%
- Patronato win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 52%
- 3+ goals
- 26%
- 4+ goals
- 10%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 33%
- No
- 67%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Atletico Rafaela and 0.7 from Patronato. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (18%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–0 (17%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 33% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2004 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atletico Rafaela: last 6
DWLLLW · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Colegiales | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Quilmes | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Midland | 0–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Atlanta | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Gimnasia Y Tiro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs San Martin Tucuman | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWD
Patronato: last 6
LLWLWD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Agropecuario | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Tristan Suarez | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Club Atlético Güemes | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Chacarita Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs San Martin S.J. | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | at Nueva Chicago | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDDL
Season stats
| Atletico Rafaela | Patronato | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Goals scored per game | 0.83 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.29 | Scored per game at home | 1.22 |
| 0.39 | Scored per game away | 0.41 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| 34% | Both teams scored | 31% |
| 46% | Clean sheets | 37% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 51% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 35 | +2 | 48 | DDDLL |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | -9 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 14 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 35 | -8 | 39 | WWLWL |
| 16 | Patronato | 35 | -6 | 37 | LLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 35 | -9 | 37 | DLLLW |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 35 | -34 | 26 | LWLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Atletico Rafaela 6Patronato 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atletico Rafaela 1 · Patronato 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 10 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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