Los Andes vs Mitre (Santiago del Estero) prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Los Andes to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 73%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a home lean close to the published 53%, with the sceptic's nod to Mitre's away wins the only real dissent. Every card puts under 2.5 goals as the likely outcome, consistent with the 27% over line and a 1.96-goal league environment. A tight, low-scoring home win or draw is the collective picture.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring sides point to a tight, home-tilted game under the goal line.
Los Andes concede just 0.74 per game with clean sheets in 46% of matches, while Mitre leak 1.20 per game. Both teams score in only 31% of Los Andes games, and the competition averages 1.96 goals per match. Mitre's away scoring drops to 0.82 per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table deadlock between two draw-heavy sides; home edge but no urgency to force it.
Los Andes sit 10th on 42 points, Mitre 13th on 39, after 35 games each. Los Andes are winless in four (D D L L) but unbeaten in three at home (D W D D D form reads D W D D L). Mitre arrive on five days' rest, one fewer than the hosts.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished home lean looks fair, but Mitre's away form argues for a slightly bigger away share.
Los Andes have one win in six and lost 0-3 at Colon. Over 2.5 at 27% fits: Mitre's games go over just 37% of the time.
Mitre (Santiago del Estero): slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Los Andes are favourites at 53%, with Mitre (Santiago del Estero) on 17% and the draw on 30%. Los Andes are 10th and Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 13th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Los Andes won one and Mitre (Santiago del Estero) two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Los Andes win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Mitre (Santiago del Estero) win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 54%
- 3+ goals
- 27%
- 4+ goals
- 11%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 31%
- No
- 69%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Los Andes and 0.6 from Mitre (Santiago del Estero). (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (20%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–0 (16%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 30% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1956 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Los Andes: last 6
DDLLWL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at CA Estudiantes | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs All Boys | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | at Racing Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Godoy Cruz | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Deportivo Moron | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Colon Santa Fe | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWDDL
Mitre (Santiago del Estero): last 6
LWDWLL · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Godoy Cruz | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Deportivo Moron | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Colon Santa Fe | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at San Miguel | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs San Telmo | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Acassuso | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLDL
Season stats
| Los Andes | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.77 | Goals scored per game | 0.89 |
| 0.74 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 0.82 | Scored per game at home | 0.94 |
| 0.72 | Scored per game away | 0.82 |
| 23% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| 31% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 46% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 49% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 35 | +1 | 49 | DLWLW |
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | +0 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 10 | Los Andes | 35 | +1 | 42 | DDLLW |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 35 | -11 | 40 | LLWDD |
| 12 | Defensores De Belgrano | 35 | -7 | 39 | DDLDL |
| 13 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | 35 | -11 | 39 | LWDWL |
| 14 | Central Norte | 35 | -8 | 38 | DWDDD |
| 15 | All Boys | 35 | -9 | 38 | WDDLD |
| 16 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
Match context
- Rest days
- Los Andes 6Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Los Andes 2 · Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 2
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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