Colón (Santa Fe) vs Defensores de Belgrano prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Colón (Santa Fe) to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a home win for Colón, driven by their superior league position and attacking output at home. While the market is relatively close to the published probabilities, Colón's recent form and rest advantage suggest they are the stronger side for this fixture.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersColón's strong home attacking metrics should provide them with the necessary edge.
Defensores de Belgrano struggles away, scoring only 0.89 goals per game overall. Colón has scored 10 goals in their last 5 home fixtures.
Colón (Santa Fe): clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureColón holds a significant advantage in league standing and recent form.
Colón is 5th in the table with 57 points, while Defensores de Belgrano sits in 12th place with 39 points. Colón has 6 days rest, compared to Belgrano's 5 days rest.
Colón (Santa Fe): slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market assessment appears balanced, though Colón's home form is slightly undervalued.
The published odds show Colón at 60% and the over 2.5 goals at 31%. Colón's season scoring average at home is 1.59, which is higher than the competition average of 1.23.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Colón (Santa Fe) are clear favourites at 60%, with Defensores de Belgrano on 13% and the draw on 27%. Colón (Santa Fe) are 5th and Defensores de Belgrano 12th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Colón (Santa Fe) won two and Defensores de Belgrano none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Colón (Santa Fe) win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Defensores de Belgrano win or draw
- 40%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 58%
- 3+ goals
- 31%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 31%
- No
- 69%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Colón (Santa Fe) and 0.5 from Defensores de Belgrano. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (20%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 13% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1939 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Colón (Santa Fe): last 6
WDDWDW · 8 scored, 2 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Ciudad de Bolívar | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Almirante Brown | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Atletico Mitre | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs CA Estudiantes | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at All Boys | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Los Andes | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWLW
Defensores de Belgrano: last 6
DDLDLW · 3 scored, 6 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs San Miguel | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Oct | at San Telmo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Acassuso | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Chaco For Ever | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Central Norte | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWLD
Season stats
| Colón (Santa Fe) | Defensores de Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | Goals scored per game | 0.71 |
| 0.77 | Goals conceded per game | 0.91 |
| 1.59 | Scored per game at home | 0.72 |
| 0.89 | Scored per game away | 0.71 |
| 34% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 37% | Both teams scored | 34% |
| 46% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 49% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 35 | +19 | 63 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 35 | +14 | 58 | LLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Colón (Santa Fe) | 35 | +16 | 57 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 35 | +5 | 51 | WDDLL |
| 7 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 35 | +1 | 49 | DLWLW |
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | +0 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 10 | Los Andes | 35 | +1 | 42 | DDLLW |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 35 | -11 | 40 | LLWDD |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 35 | -7 | 39 | DDLDL |
| 13 | Atletico Mitre | 35 | -11 | 39 | LWDWL |
| 14 | Central Norte | 35 | -8 | 38 | DWDDD |
| 15 | All Boys | 35 | -9 | 38 | WDDLD |
Match context
- Travel for Defensores de Belgrano
- 385 km
- Rest days
- Colón (Santa Fe) 6Defensores de Belgrano 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Colón (Santa Fe) 2 · Defensores de Belgrano 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 27°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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