San Telmo vs Central Norte prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
San Telmo to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 76%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a low-scoring, tight affair: the model's 42/34/24 split and 24% over 2.5 sit comfortably with the season scoring rates and both sides' recent form. The draw is the strongest shared theme, with San Telmo's home edge narrowly outweighing Central Norte's solid away run.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring sides point to a tight, under-friendly contest.
Both teams score in just 31% of the model's games here.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEvenly matched mid-lower sides, home edge and a draw looms large.
Both sit on 38 points from 35 games, San Telmo 16th and Central Norte 14th, with 17 draws for the visitors. San Telmo's last six show three defeats, though two wins came recently; Central Norte are unbeaten in five. Equal rest at 6 days, but a 1289 km trip for the away side.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look broadly fair; the away case is slightly underrated.
Central Norte's away form reads W D D D D with 5 scored and 4 conceded, yet they get only 24%. San Telmo's 1.0 expected goals looks generous given 0.83 per game and 49% blanks. The 24% over 2.5 line matches both sides' season rates of 37% and 23%.
San Telmo: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
San Telmo are slight favourites at 42%, with Central Norte on 24% and the draw on 34%. San Telmo are 16th and Central Norte 14th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, San Telmo won two and Central Norte one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Telmo win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 66%
- Central Norte win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 50%
- 3+ goals
- 24%
- 4+ goals
- 9%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 31%
- No
- 69%
We expect about 1.0 goals from San Telmo and 0.7 from Central Norte. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–0 (19%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 34% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1958 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Telmo: last 6
LDLWWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Deportivo Madryn | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Defensores De Belgrano | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Ciudad de Bolívar | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Almirante Brown | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Atletico Mitre | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs CA Estudiantes | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLDD
Central Norte: last 6
DWDDDL · 4 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Acassuso | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Chaco For Ever | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Ferro Carril Oeste | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Racing Cordoba | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Deportivo Madryn | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Defensores De Belgrano | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WDDDD
Season stats
| San Telmo | Central Norte | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Goals scored per game | 0.66 |
| 1.17 | Goals conceded per game | 0.89 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 0.65 |
| 37% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| 34% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 37% | Clean sheets | 37% |
| 49% | Failed to score | 49% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 35 | -11 | 40 | LLWDD |
| 12 | Defensores De Belgrano | 35 | -7 | 39 | DDLDL |
| 13 | Atletico Mitre | 35 | -11 | 39 | LWDWL |
| 14 | Central Norte | 35 | -8 | 38 | DWDDD |
| 15 | All Boys | 35 | -9 | 38 | WDDLD |
| 16 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 17 | Acassuso | 35 | -10 | 34 | DDWLW |
| 18 | San Miguel | 35 | -14 | 33 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Central Norte
- 1,289 km
- Rest days
- San Telmo 6Central Norte 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Telmo 2 · Central Norte 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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