Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) vs Quilmes prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 71%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a competitive fixture where Gimnasia y Tiro holds a slight edge at home. While Quilmes' away form is concerning, the overall probabilities suggest a tight contest with a reasonable chance of goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGimnasia y Tiro's strong home record contrasts with Quilmes' poor away scoring form.
Quilmes struggles away, failing to score in 54% of their away matches and averaging only 0.94 goals per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGimnasia y Tiro enters the match with strong home momentum and a solid league position.
Gimnasia y Tiro is 6th in the table with 52 points and a strong home run of 5 wins/draw. Quilmes is 13th with 42 points and has struggled significantly in their last 5 away fixtures.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears balanced, but Quilmes' recent away struggles suggest the away win chance may be slightly inflated.
Quilmes scored 0 goals in 5 of their last away matches, which contrasts with the published 23% chance of an away win. The 29% probability for over 2.5 goals is reasonable given the season average of 1.96 goals per match.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) are favourites at 46%, with Quilmes on 23% and the draw on 31%. Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) are 6th and Quilmes 13th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) won two and Quilmes two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Quilmes win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 56%
- 3+ goals
- 29%
- 4+ goals
- 12%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 36%
- No
- 64%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) and 0.7 from Quilmes. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (18%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% | 31% | 23% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1846 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta): last 6
LWDLWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Midland | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Atlanta | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Gimnasia Jujuy | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Oct | at San Martin Tucuman | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Atletico DE Rafaela | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Agropecuario | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWDWW
Quilmes: last 6
WLLDWL · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs San Martin Tucuman | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Atletico DE Rafaela | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Agropecuario | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Tristan Suarez | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Atlético Güemes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Chacarita Juniors | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLLL
Season stats
| Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) | Quilmes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | Goals scored per game | 0.91 |
| 0.97 | Goals conceded per game | 0.86 |
| 1.18 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game away | 0.65 |
| 34% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| 46% | Both teams scored | 23% |
| 34% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 54% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Temperley | 35 | +12 | 60 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 35 | +8 | 58 | LWDLD |
| 5 | Midland | 35 | +14 | 54 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) | 35 | +3 | 52 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 35 | +9 | 51 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 35 | +2 | 48 | DDDLL |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | -9 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 14 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 35 | -8 | 39 | WWLWL |
| 16 | Patronato | 35 | -6 | 37 | LLWLW |
Match context
- Travel for Quilmes
- 1,300 km
- Rest days
- Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) 6Quilmes 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta) 1 · Quilmes 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 24°C · wind 16 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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