Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ferro Carril Oeste to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals, the low scoring rates on both sides make under 2.5 the likelier outcome, consistent with the published 36% over line.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAcassuso score just 0.76 per game at home and fail to score in 57% of matches, while Ferro concede only 0.89 per game with 46% clean sheets. Ferro score 1.18 away.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop against 17th: Ferro's points gap makes them clear favourites despite wobbles.
Ferro lead the table with 65 points from 35 games (W19 D8 L8); Acassuso sit 17th on 34 points (W8 D10 L17). Ferro's away form reads D W D D W, while Acassuso's home run is D L W L L with only 3 scored.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, but Ferro's recent wobble gives the draw a little more life.
Acassuso have three clean sheets in their last six. Over 2.5 at 36% fits the 1.96 goals-per-match league environment.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ferro Carril Oeste are clear favourites at 62%, with Acassuso on 13% and the draw on 25%. Acassuso are 17th and Ferro Carril Oeste 1st in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Acassuso won two and Ferro Carril Oeste two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Acassuso win or draw
- 38%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Ferro Carril Oeste win or draw
- 87%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 34%
- No
- 66%
We expect about 0.6 goals from Acassuso and 1.6 from Ferro Carril Oeste. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–2 (15%), 0–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 33% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1959 | |
| 2 | 13% | 25% | 62% | Prices moved | #2145 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Acassuso: last 6
DDWLWW · 6 scored, 1 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Central Norte | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Deportivo Madryn | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Defensores De Belgrano | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Ciudad de Bolívar | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Almirante Brown | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Atletico Mitre | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWLL
Ferro Carril Oeste: last 6
LWDLWW · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Chaco For Ever | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Racing Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Central Norte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Deportivo Madryn | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Defensores De Belgrano | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Ciudad de Bolívar | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DWDDW
Season stats
| Acassuso | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.89 |
| 0.76 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.18 |
| 26% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| 26% | Both teams scored | 37% |
| 37% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 57% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 35 | +19 | 63 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 35 | +14 | 58 | LLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Central Norte | 35 | -8 | 38 | DWDDD |
| 15 | All Boys | 35 | -9 | 38 | WDDLD |
| 16 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 17 | Acassuso | 35 | -10 | 34 | DDWLW |
| 18 | San Miguel | 35 | -14 | 33 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Ferro Carril Oeste
- 21 km
- Rest days
- Acassuso 5Ferro Carril Oeste 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Acassuso 2 · Ferro Carril Oeste 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 23°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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