San Martín (Tucumán) vs Colegiales prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
San Martín (Tucumán) to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The sceptic sees the away side slightly undervalued given their recent wins, while the coach and dressing room both point to under 2.5 goals, consistent with the 36% over line.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome edge built on Tucuman scoring, but two careful attacks point under.
San Martin average 1.41 scored per game at home against a Colegiales defence conceding just 0.91 per game with 46% clean sheets.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table stakes and a tight schedule point to a tense, low-scoring home lean.
San Martin's unbeaten home run of W W W D D gives them the platform, while Colegiales arrive with one game in 14 days against seven for the hosts.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look fair, though the away win may be a touch generous.
Colegiales have won three of their last six and kept it tight away (5 scored, 5 conceded in five), yet the model gives them just 24%. Their 0.53 goals per game away supports the low 0.8 expected goals. San Martin's three defeats in six temper the 47% home line, so I shade the draw up slightly.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
San Martín (Tucumán) are favourites at 47%, with Colegiales on 24% and the draw on 29%. San Martín (Tucumán) are 10th and Colegiales 8th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, San Martín (Tucumán) won two and Colegiales three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Martín (Tucumán) win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Colegiales win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 1.3 goals from San Martín (Tucumán) and 0.8 from Colegiales. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 29% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1948 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Martín (Tucumán): last 6
LWLWDL · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Quilmes | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Midland | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Atlanta | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | at Gimnasia Jujuy | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Atletico DE Rafaela | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWDD
Colegiales: last 6
DWDWWL · 7 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Atletico DE Rafaela | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Agropecuario | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Tristan Suarez | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Club Atlético Güemes | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Chacarita Juniors | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at San Martin S.J. | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLLD
Season stats
| San Martín (Tucumán) | Colegiales | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.11 | Goals scored per game | 1.03 |
| 1.06 | Goals conceded per game | 0.91 |
| 1.41 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 0.53 |
| 34% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| 46% | Both teams scored | 34% |
| 34% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 37% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Midland | 35 | +14 | 54 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 35 | +3 | 52 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 35 | +9 | 51 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 35 | +2 | 48 | DDDLL |
| 10 | San Martín (Tucumán) | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | -9 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
Match context
- Rest days
- San Martín (Tucumán) 7Colegiales 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Martín (Tucumán) 2 · Colegiales 1
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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