Deportivo Morón vs Ciudad de Bolívar prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Deportivo Morón to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three lean Morón, but the sceptic's doubt is grounded: a five-match losing run sits awkwardly with a 58% home rating, so the gap to Bolívar narrows slightly. On goals, Bolívar's low away output and 26% over-rate pull the over below the published 44%, with a one-sided, low-scoring game the likeliest shape.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMorón's home scoring meets Bolívar's low-scoring away game - goals lean one way
Morón score 1.82 per game at home against a side keeping clean sheets 46% of the time. Bolívar manage just 0.82 per game away and have failed to score 34% this season.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird hosts seventh with both chasing - Morón's slump is the worry
Morón sit 3rd on 58 points but have lost five of their last six, conceding two or more in four of them. Bolívar, 7th on 51, arrive with four wins in six.
Ciudad de Bolívar: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 58% for Morón looks generous given their form collapse
Bolívar's away form (W W L L L) and 0.86 goals per game suggest a tighter game than 44% over 2.5 implies; both-teams-score at 44% also feels high for a 1.6 vs 0.8 expected-goals split.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Deportivo Morón are favourites at 58%, with Ciudad de Bolívar on 18% and the draw on 24%. Deportivo Morón are 3rd and Ciudad de Bolívar 7th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Deportivo Morón won one and Ciudad de Bolívar four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Deportivo Morón win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Ciudad de Bolívar win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Deportivo Morón and 0.8 from Ciudad de Bolívar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 24% | 18% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2005 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Deportivo Morón: last 6
LLLWLL · 4 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Almirante Brown | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico Mitre | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at CA Estudiantes | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs All Boys | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Los Andes | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Godoy Cruz | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLWW
Ciudad de Bolívar: last 6
LWWWWL · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Colon Santa Fe | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at San Miguel | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs San Telmo | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Acassuso | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Chaco For Ever | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLLL
Season stats
| Deportivo Morón | Ciudad de Bolívar | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.06 | Goals conceded per game | 0.89 |
| 1.82 | Scored per game at home | 0.89 |
| 1.11 | Scored per game away | 0.82 |
| 51% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 26% |
| 51% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 34% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 35 | +19 | 63 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Deportivo Morón | 35 | +14 | 58 | LLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 35 | +16 | 57 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 35 | +5 | 51 | WDDLL |
| 7 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 35 | +1 | 49 | DLWLW |
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | +0 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 10 | Los Andes | 35 | +1 | 42 | DDLLW |
Match context
- Rest days
- Deportivo Morón 6Ciudad de Bolívar 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Deportivo Morón 2 · Ciudad de Bolívar 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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