Flamengo vs Atletico-MG prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Flamengo to win: 77%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three analysts converge on a strong Flamengo victory. The data supports the market's high probability for a home win, driven by Flamengo's superior table position and attacking statistics. The high likelihood of goals is also strongly supported by season-long trends.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFlamengo's high attacking output at home should prove too much for an Atletico-MG side struggling defensively on the road.
Flamengo averages 1.93 goals scored at home, while Atletico-MG concedes 1.13 goals per game overall. Both sides face significant absences, including Evertton Araujo and Fred.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe positional advantage held by Flamengo, combined with their recent form, suggests they are the stronger side heading into this fixture.
Flamengo sits 2nd in the table with 67 points, while Atletico-MG is 6th with 50 points. Flamengo has had 3 days rest, compared to Atletico-MG's 5 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market heavily favours Flamengo, which aligns with their strong historical record against Atletico-MG.
The market heavily favours Flamengo at 74%, which aligns with their 3 H2H wins.
Flamengo: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Flamengo are clear favourites at 77%, with Atletico-MG on 8% and the draw on 15%. Flamengo are 2nd and Atletico-MG 6th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Flamengo won four and Atletico-MG three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Flamengo win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Atletico-MG win or draw
- 22%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 2.5 goals from Flamengo and 0.7 from Atletico-MG. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Flamengo: last 6
DWDWDW · 8 scored, 3 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Bahia | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Fluminense | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Bragantino | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWDW
Atletico-MG: last 6
LWWWDW · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Atletico Torque CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Atletico Torque CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Atletico Paranaense | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs RB Bragantino | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLLD
Season stats
| Flamengo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.97 | Goals scored per game | 1.35 |
| 0.81 | Goals conceded per game | 1.13 |
| 1.93 | Scored per game at home | 1.69 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 61% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| 48% | Both teams scored | 48% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 6% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Flamengo won 3, Atletico-MG 1, 2 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Atletico-MG | 0–4 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Atletico-MG | 1–1 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Atletico-MG | 0–1 | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Flamengo | 0–1 | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Flamengo | 1–0 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 13 Nov 2024 | Flamengo | 0–0 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutDaniloJaw injury
- OutEvertton AraujoThigh
- OutT. BorbasMuscle
- OutM. CassierraMuscle
- OutCuelloRibs
Show 3 more
- OutEversonFoot
- OutFredMuscle
- OutRuan TressoldiMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Atletico-MG
- 341 km
- Rest days
- Flamengo 3Atletico-MG 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Flamengo 3 · Atletico-MG 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 18 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
