Chapecoense vs Fluminense prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fluminense to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The goal line sits close to the published 52% over 2.5: Chapecoense's porous defence and both-teams-score rates point to chances at both ends, though Fluminense's two-day turnaround is the main brake. A competitive away win with goals is the consensus picture.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFluminense's sharper attack meets a leaky home defence; goals look likely.
Fluminense's 1.8 expected goals edges the goal expectation.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGulf in the table and a heavy fixture load shape a tense away test.
Fluminense, 4th on 51 points from 31 games, arrive on two days' rest after four games in 14 days. Chapecoense, 20th with 18 points from 30, have seven days' rest but one win in six. Fatigue could blunt the visitors, yet the points gap is stark.
Fluminense: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 55% away price looks fair, but rest and H2H temper the margin.
Chapecoense's only recent win came at Corinthians. The published 55/25/21 split and 52% over 2.5 look about right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Fluminense are favourites at 54%, with Chapecoense on 21% and the draw on 25%. Chapecoense are 20th and Fluminense 5th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Chapecoense won none and Fluminense two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Chapecoense win or draw
- 45%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Fluminense win or draw
- 79%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Chapecoense and 1.8 from Fluminense. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 25% | 55% | Stats preview | #814 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Chapecoense: last 6
LLLDLW · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Botafogo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Atletico Paranaense | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Vitoria | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Atletico-MG | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Internacional | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWDL
Fluminense: last 6
WLLLWW · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Palmeiras CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Palmeiras CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Flamengo | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Coritiba | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Corinthians | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWLL
Season stats
| Chapecoense | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.58 |
| 2.07 | Goals conceded per game | 1.26 |
| 1.36 | Scored per game at home | 1.81 |
| 0.69 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 63% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 13% |
League matches only, 30 and 31 games.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chapecoense won 0, Fluminense 4, 2 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Fluminense | 2–1 | Chapecoense | Serie A |
| 10 Dec 2021 | Fluminense | 3–0 | Chapecoense | Serie A |
| 8 Sep 2021 | Chapecoense | 1–2 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 26 Oct 2019 | Fluminense | 1–1 | Chapecoense | Serie A |
| 13 Jun 2019 | Chapecoense | 1–1 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 24 Sep 2018 | Chapecoense | 1–2 | Fluminense | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.KauanSuspended
- OutHeitorHamstring
- OutRobert ConceicaoKnee
Show 2 more
- OutVinicius BalieiroKnee
- DoubtRafael CarvalheiraKnee
- Susp.J. SavarinoSuspended
- OutAlissonHip
- OutJohn KennedyKnee
Show 4 more
- OutMatheus ReisKnee
- OutJ. MillanNot available
- OutRiquelme FelipeNot available
- DoubtMartinelliNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Chapecoense 7Fluminense 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Chapecoense 2 · Fluminense 4
- Referee
- Anderson Daronco
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
