Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vasco DA Gama to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52% · ✗ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean home, with the coach and dressing room close to the published 58% and the sceptic trimming it slightly on Corinthians' strong recent head-to-head.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Vasco DA Gama are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Corinthians are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVasco's home scoring meets a leaky away defence in a game both sides attack
Vasco score 1.40 per game at home and have won three of their last five there, conceding just 4. Corinthians concede 1.26 per game overall and shipped 11 in their last five away.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo mid-table-struggling sides, but Vasco's home form and fresher momentum matter
Vasco sit 15th on 35 points from 30 games, Corinthians 16th on 33 from 31. Corinthians have lost six straight in all competitions, including five away on the spin.
Vasco DA Gama: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks fair, but the head-to-head record argues against such a gap
Yet their current away run of L L L D L and 1.07 scored per game away tempers that. Over 2.5 at 48% looks about right given both teams score around 58-60%.
Corinthians: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vasco DA Gama are favourites at 58%, with Corinthians on 18% and the draw on 24%. Vasco DA Gama are 16th and Corinthians 17th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Vasco DA Gama won three and Corinthians none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vasco DA Gama win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Corinthians win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Vasco DA Gama and 0.9 from Corinthians. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 24% | 18% | Stats preview | #806 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vasco DA Gama: last 6
LLWDWW · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Remo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Botafogo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Coritiba | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWWW
Corinthians: last 6
DLLLLL · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Palmeiras | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Internacional | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Fluminense | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Flamengo | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDL
Season stats
| Vasco DA Gama | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.03 |
| 1.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.26 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.07 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 32% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 23% |
League matches only, 30 and 31 games.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Vasco DA Gama won 0, Corinthians 5, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Corinthians | 1–0 | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Vasco DA Gama | 1–2 | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
| 18 Dec 2025 | Corinthians | 0–0 | Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Vasco DA Gama | 2–3 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Corinthians | 3–0 | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Corinthians | 3–1 | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutCauan BarrosNot available
- OutC. CuestaNot available
- OutMateus CarvalhoKnee
- OutAlex SantanaNot available
- OutA. CarrilloNot available
- OutM. DepayNot available
Show 5 more
- OutGabriel PaulistaNot available
- OutKaykeKnee
- OutZ. LabyadKnee
- OutRanieleNot available
- OutVitinhoNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Vasco DA Gama 3Corinthians 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vasco DA Gama 3 · Corinthians 2
- Referee
- Wilton Sampaio
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
